SF Holding(SZ:002352) Huachuang Securities·2025-06-23 14:05Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for SF Holding (002352) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the sustainable optimization of free cash flow as a reflection of the company's evolving business and operational models [1][10] - Key drivers identified include the upward trend in EBIT and the stabilization of capital expenditures leading to steady depreciation and amortization [12][35] Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The company has implemented a comprehensive organizational restructuring to activate operations, aiming to unleash employee potential while maintaining the advantages of a direct sales model [2] - Initial results show that from March 2025, the volume growth rate has surpassed the industry average, with growth rates of 25.4%, 30.0%, and 31.8% in March to May respectively [2][53] - The structure of time-sensitive packages is shifting from business packages to consumer and industrial manufacturing sectors, becoming a major growth driver [2][67] - The number of monthly settled customers reached 2.3 million by the end of 2024, an 18% year-on-year increase, while individual users grew to 730 million, a 10% increase [2][67] Cost Management - The company is pursuing a large operational model transformation to support ongoing cost reductions, with a focus on four major areas, ten links, and twenty-one measures [2] - The introduction of "cages" is seen as a key tool for transforming the last-mile delivery process [2] Future Business Volume - The report raises questions about the sustainability of accelerated business volume growth, particularly regarding the impact of "unmanned vehicles + cages + flexible urban capacity" [3][11] - The use of unmanned vehicles and cages is projected to significantly reduce costs in the last-mile delivery segment, with estimated savings of 2,200 yuan per month per route [3][11] Capital Expenditure and Depreciation - The peak of capital expenditure has passed, with total capital expenditures decreasing from 289 billion yuan in 2021 to an estimated 107 billion yuan in 2024, leading to a stabilization in depreciation and amortization [12][43] - The effective tax rate has been declining, contributing to improved cash flow [46] Profitability Forecast - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 12.09 billion, 13.99 billion, and 15.91 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.42, 2.80, and 3.19 yuan [13] - The target price for the stock is set at 62.7 yuan, reflecting a 24% upside from the current market value [14]