开源证券晨会-20250623

Macro Economic Overview - Industrial production remains resilient, with overall industrial activity at a historically high level despite weak construction demand and fluctuating automotive and home appliance sales [3][4]. - Recent data indicates that construction starts are low, with cement shipments at historical lows, while industrial production remains strong, particularly in the chemical sector [3]. - The demand side shows weakness in construction, with lower apparent demand for rebar and building materials compared to historical levels [3]. Agricultural Sector - The poultry market is entering a seasonal downturn, leading to potential short-term pressure on chicken prices. In May, the average price for white feather broilers was 7.41 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease from the previous month [7][8]. - The inventory levels for breeding chickens are relatively high, indicating sufficient supply despite the pressure on prices [7]. - Egg prices are expected to decline further in June due to weak terminal demand and high supply pressure, with the average wholesale price for eggs dropping significantly [8][9]. Semiconductor Industry - The domestic high-end semiconductor packaging leader, Shenghe Jingwei, has entered the guidance acceptance phase for its IPO, focusing on advanced packaging materials [13][14]. - The global semiconductor packaging materials market is projected to grow, with a current domestic localization rate of around 15% for semiconductor materials [15]. - Key materials for advanced packaging are being closely monitored, with several domestic companies positioned to benefit from the localization of these materials [15][16][17]. Chemical Industry - The solid-state battery industry is experiencing accelerated industrialization, supported by favorable policies and advancements in high-performance materials [20][21]. - The demand for solid-state batteries is increasing, with several companies making significant progress in material production and technology [22][23]. - The industry is expected to reach a commercialization inflection point by 2030, with ongoing developments in production capabilities and material costs [21][22]. Consumer Services Sector - The 618 shopping festival showed strong performance in instant retail, with significant growth in sales for tea and coffee brands, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [25][26]. - The beauty and personal care sector also saw stable growth during the 618 period, with major e-commerce platforms reporting substantial sales figures [27]. - The overall consumer services index has underperformed the broader market, highlighting competitive pressures within the sector [28]. Pharmaceutical Industry - Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical is focusing on traditional Chinese medicine while innovating in drug development, with a robust pipeline expected to drive future growth [33][34]. - The company has established a sustainable business model that integrates innovative drugs with traditional Chinese medicine, positioning itself well in the market [34]. - The projected net profits for Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical are expected to grow steadily from 3.08 billion yuan in 2025 to 3.92 billion yuan by 2027 [33][34].