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三花智控(002050):制冷汽零持续扩展,机器人领域蓄势待发

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Views - The company has successfully achieved an IPO on the Hong Kong stock market, raising HKD 9.177 billion to expand production capacity in refrigeration and automotive sectors, and to develop electromechanical actuators for bionic robotics [3][9]. - The company has shown excellent growth in both refrigeration and automotive sectors, with a revenue of RMB 16.56 billion in the refrigeration sector (YoY +13.1%) and RMB 11.39 billion in the automotive sector (YoY +14.9%) for 2024 [4][10]. - The company is expected to benefit from Chinese appliance renewal policies in 2025, with a strong order backlog in the automotive sector [4][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 31.65 billion in 2025, RMB 36.28 billion in 2026, and RMB 41.65 billion in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 13%, 15%, and 15% respectively [2][4]. - Net profit is projected to be RMB 3.73 billion in 2025, RMB 4.34 billion in 2026, and RMB 5.07 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 20%, 17%, and 17% respectively [2][4]. - The diluted EPS is expected to increase from RMB 0.90 in 2025 to RMB 1.22 in 2027 [2][4]. Valuation - The company is assigned a target price of RMB 28.80 based on a 32x PE valuation for 2025, reflecting its growth potential in both existing and new markets [5][11].