中银量化多策略行业轮动周报-20250624

Core Insights - The report highlights the current industry allocation of the Bank of China’s multi-strategy system, with the highest weights in Communication (10.6%), Electronics (8.7%), and Comprehensive Finance (8.2) [1] - The average weekly return for the CITIC primary industries was -2.2%, with the best-performing sectors being Oil & Petrochemicals (2.8%), Communication (1.5%), and Banking (1.0%) [3][10] - The report indicates that the composite strategy has achieved a cumulative return of 4.5% year-to-date, outperforming the CITIC primary industry equal-weight benchmark by 1.1% [3] Recent Industry Performance Review - The best-performing sectors this week were Oil & Petrochemicals (2.8%), Communication (1.5%), and Banking (1.0%), while the worst were Pharmaceuticals (-6.1%), Textiles and Apparel (-5.8%), and Light Industry Manufacturing (-5.1%) [10][11] - The average return for the CITIC primary industries over the past month was -0.3% [10] Industry Valuation Risk Warning - The report employs a valuation warning system based on the PB ratio over the past six years, identifying sectors with high valuation risks [12] - Currently, the Retail Trade and Automotive sectors are flagged for high valuation risk, with PB ratios above the 95th percentile [13][14] Single Strategy Rankings and Recent Performance - The top three industries based on the high prosperity industry rotation strategy (S1) are Non-ferrous Metals, Communication, and Pharmaceuticals [15][16] - The implied sentiment momentum tracking strategy (S2) ranks Banking, Communication, and Comprehensive Finance as the top three sectors [20] Composite Strategy Industry Allocation and Performance Review - The composite strategy has allocated the highest weights to the Long-term Dilemma Reversal Strategy (S4) at 22.5%, while the lowest weight is assigned to the Macro Style Rotation Strategy (S3) at 8.6% [3] - The report indicates that the Long-term Dilemma Reversal Strategy recommends Banking, Steel, Electronics, Non-bank Finance, Building Materials, and Coal as the top sectors for investment this month [26]