南美白对虾行业：市场广阔，国产虾养殖行至渐稳

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The South American white shrimp industry is experiencing rapid growth, with China being the largest farming and consuming country. The global compound growth rate from 2018 to 2022 reached 7.94%, with China's production in 2023 at 2.2384 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.66% [1][13][19] - The demand for shrimp is increasing, with per capita consumption expected to reach a market size of 143.5 billion yuan by 2028. In 2023, China's shrimp consumption was approximately 3.18 million tons, driven by rising income levels and urbanization [1][19][30] - Ecuador is the primary source of shrimp imports for China, accounting for 42.88% of total production in 2023, with Ecuador contributing over 75% of the imports [1][30] Summary by Sections Supply - The global South American white shrimp farming is growing rapidly, with China and Ecuador as the main producers. In 2023, China's production reached 2.2384 million tons, up 6.66% year-on-year, while Ecuador's production in 2022 was 1.1109 million tons, up 24.49% [1][13][19] Demand - Per capita seafood consumption in China is increasing, with urban residents consuming an average of 17.38 kg in 2023. The shrimp market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size of 143.5 billion yuan by 2028 [18][19] Imports - In 2023, shrimp imports accounted for 42.88% of total production in China, with Ecuador being the largest supplier, contributing 75% of the imports [1][30] Price Trends - Shrimp prices have been under pressure in recent years due to increased production and import impacts. The domestic shrimp price is expected to decline further in 2023 and 2024, with a decrease of 11.7% and 8.82% respectively [2][39][45] Industry Trends - The industry is moving towards factory-based and intensive farming methods, which are expected to enhance productivity and efficiency. The domestic breeding level is improving, with a projected 50% reduction in shrimp seed imports by 2025 [4][63][71] Investment Recommendations - Despite recent price pressures, the long-term outlook for the shrimp industry remains positive, particularly for leading companies in seed and feed production, such as Haida Group [4][71]