贵州茅台（600519）：消费回归本源，呼吁理性发展

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - Recent price fluctuations of Feitian Moutai are primarily due to short-term impacts from e-commerce and policy changes, suggesting the company should take multiple measures to restore market confidence [6] - The company is transitioning from selling liquor to selling a lifestyle, positioning Moutai as a key participant in high-quality living [6] - The focus is on shareholder returns and the ability to navigate through economic cycles rather than short-term growth [6] Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The current stock price is 1420.0 CNY with a target valuation set [2] Financial Data - Total market capitalization is 1783.8 billion CNY with a total share capital of 1256 million shares [2] - The company has a return on equity (ROE) of 34.5% and a debt-to-asset ratio of 14.1% [2] Price Performance - The stock has shown a decline of 10% over the past month, 7% over six months, and 4% over twelve months [4] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the current environment is characterized by a "corporate endurance phase" with declining profitability and weak demand, leading to a fragile confidence among distributors [6] - The company aims for a 9% growth target while managing supply to stabilize prices [6] Shareholder Returns - The average dividend payout ratio over the past three years is 85%, significantly higher than the 38% average from 2013-2015 [6] - The company has been actively repurchasing shares, with a total repurchase amount of 5.1 billion CNY since September 2024 [6] Financial Projections - Projected total revenue for 2025 is 190.1 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 9% [8] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 74.78 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19x [8] Conclusion - Despite short-term fluctuations, the report expresses confidence in the company's ability to navigate through economic cycles, reaffirming the "Strong Buy" rating [7]