YADEA(HK:01585) HTSC·2025-06-24 06:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the global electric two-wheeler market, with sales increasing from 4.06 million units in 2017 to 13.02 million units in 2024, maintaining the top position for eight consecutive years [2] - The company is expected to benefit from industry consolidation and favorable policies, including the new national standards and trade-in programs, which are anticipated to drive market share growth [4] - The company has optimized its product structure and marketing strategies, focusing on high-value products, which has led to a significant increase in sales and profitability in the first half of 2025 [3] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has over 40,000 stores and is expanding its battery and related components production to strengthen its competitive advantage [2] Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of at least 1.6 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of over 55% [3] - The revenue for 2025 is projected to be 37.79 billion RMB, with a significant recovery from a decline in 2024 [7] Market Outlook - The domestic market is expected to see high growth due to the trade-in policy, with 6.5 million electric bicycles traded in from January to May 2025 [4] - The company is actively pursuing international expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia, with new product launches and factory openings [4] Profitability and Valuation - The report raises the profit margin assumptions, predicting net profits of 2.99 billion RMB and 3.51 billion RMB for 2025 and 2026, respectively [5] - The target price is adjusted to 19.61 HKD, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.82 for 2025 [5][9]