锦江航运（601083）：快航特色船司立足日韩，扩展东南亚迎增长

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future performance [5][8]. Core Views - The company, Jinjiang Shipping, is positioned as a premium shipping company in Asia, focusing on the Northeast Asia routes while expanding into Southeast Asia, which is expected to drive growth [7][10]. - The company has a strong operational model with high-quality service standards, particularly in its Northeast Asia routes, which serve as a stable revenue source [10][36]. - The financial health of the company is robust, with a consistent dividend payout ratio of around 50% since its IPO, reflecting strong cash flow and profitability [44][75]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of June 23, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock is 11.72 CNY, with a total market capitalization of 15,167.09 million CNY and a circulating market value of 2,275.09 million CNY [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to generate revenues of 5,799 million CNY in 2025, with a slight decline of 2.87% year-on-year, followed by growth in subsequent years [6][74]. - The expected net profit for 2025 is 800 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 21.58%, but with a recovery forecasted in the following years [6][75]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 18.95, 17.05, and 14.63, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical performance [6][75]. Business Model and Strategy - Jinjiang Shipping has established a differentiated service model, focusing on high punctuality and premium services, particularly through its Hot Delivery Service (HDS) [7][27]. - The company is expanding its operations into Southeast Asia, replicating its successful Northeast Asia model, which is expected to enhance profitability [10][43]. - The company has a strong market presence, maintaining a leading market share in key routes such as Shanghai to Japan [15][24]. Industry Outlook - The Asian intra-regional shipping market is expected to grow, driven by stable economic growth and the deepening of trade agreements like RCEP [55][62]. - Demand for shipping services is projected to increase, with forecasts indicating a growth rate of 2.5% to 3.0% in shipping demand for the Asian region in 2025 and 2026 [55][67]. - Supply-side constraints, including a reduction in new ship deliveries and aging fleets, are anticipated to limit capacity growth, which may support freight rates in the coming years [67][70].