SF Holding(SZ:002352) China Post Securities·2025-06-25 02:46Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The express delivery industry in China continues to maintain a medium to high-speed growth, with business volume reaching historical highs. The recent trend towards logistics automation is expected to further enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs across the supply chain, leading to improved performance for express delivery companies [6][21] - SF Express is leading in growth with a business volume increase of 31.8% year-on-year, driven by its "activation of operations" strategy. Other companies like ZTO Express, YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express are also recommended due to favorable trends in e-commerce delivery [6][21] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - In May 2025, the total express delivery volume reached 17.32 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%. The express delivery revenue was 125.55 billion yuan, up 8.2%, with an average price per delivery of 7.25 yuan, down 7.6% year-on-year [4][9] Company Performance - SF Express reported a business volume of 1.477 billion pieces in May 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 31.8%, contributing to a 13.4% increase in logistics revenue. ZTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express also showed significant growth, although their growth rates were slightly lower than SF Express [5][15][16] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in SF Express, ZTO Express, YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express due to their strong growth potential and favorable market conditions [6][21] - The earnings forecasts for key companies are as follows: - SF Express: EPS of 2.34 yuan in 2025E, PE of 21.65 - ZTO Express: EPS of 13.44 yuan in 2025E, PE of 10.04 - YTO Express: EPS of 1.25 yuan in 2025E, PE of 10.32 - Shentong Express: EPS of 0.91 yuan in 2025E, PE of 11.82 - Yunda Express: EPS of 0.70 yuan in 2025E, PE of 9.53 [8]