BAOFENG ENERGY(SH:600989) GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-06-25 02:47Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 21.14 CNY [2][11]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is expected to meet expectations, with significant growth anticipated in Q1 2025 due to the production from the Inner Mongolia project, and a clear cost advantage in coal-to-olefins production [3][11]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 32.98 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.34 billion CNY, up 12.16% year-on-year [11]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 10.77 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 30.92%, and a net profit of 2.44 billion CNY, up 71.49% year-on-year [11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 29.14 billion CNY - 2024: 32.98 billion CNY - 2025: 45.38 billion CNY - 2026: 49.67 billion CNY - 2027: 53.75 billion CNY - Net profit (attributable to shareholders) is projected to be: - 2023: 5.65 billion CNY - 2024: 6.34 billion CNY - 2025: 11.09 billion CNY - 2026: 12.72 billion CNY - 2027: 13.90 billion CNY - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast is: - 2023: 0.77 CNY - 2024: 0.86 CNY - 2025: 1.51 CNY - 2026: 1.73 CNY - 2027: 1.90 CNY [5][12]. Market Data - The company's stock price has ranged between 14.20 CNY and 17.84 CNY over the past 52 weeks, with a total market capitalization of 119.75 billion CNY [6]. - The company has a total equity of 45.47 billion CNY, with a net asset value per share of 6.20 CNY and a price-to-book ratio of 2.6 [7]. Production and Cost Advantages - The Inner Mongolia project, which has commenced production, is expected to significantly contribute to revenue growth. The first phase of the project has successfully produced qualified products, with further phases expected to come online in Q1 2025 [11]. - The cost advantage of coal-based polyethylene over oil-based polyethylene is approximately 1861 CNY per ton, highlighting the competitive edge in production costs [11].