SANYUAN(SH:600429) China Post Securities·2025-06-25 05:21Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a first-time coverage [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term demand pressure, but its operational quality is continuously improving [4] - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 7.01 billion yuan, with a significant decline in net profit due to the absence of one-time gains from previous years [4][10] - The company is focusing on optimizing its sales system and enhancing operational quality by emphasizing profitable revenue and cash flow [5] Company Overview - Latest closing price is 4.37 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 6.6 billion yuan [3] - The company has a total share capital of 1.509 billion shares, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 42.7% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 121.39 [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to have a gross margin of 22.93% and a net profit margin of 0.78%, with various expense ratios reflecting changes in operational efficiency [4] - For Q1 2025, the company is expected to report a revenue of 1.647 billion yuan, with a net profit of 88 million yuan, showing a recovery in profitability compared to the previous year [5][10] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from liquid milk, solid milk, and ice cream is expected to be 4.411 billion, 0.963 billion, and 1.499 billion yuan respectively, with varying growth rates across product lines [4] - Revenue from distribution and direct sales channels is projected to be 3.840 billion and 2.243 billion yuan respectively, indicating a decline in direct sales [4] Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve revenue growth in 2025, with expectations of 7.015 billion yuan, and a gradual increase in net profit over the next few years [8][10] - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates a slight revenue growth trajectory, with net profit expected to increase significantly in 2025 [8][10]