Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-06-25 07:39Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: June 25, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The copper market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, lower inventory levels, and the weakening of the US dollar index. Negative factors are the uncertainty of tariff policies, reduced global demand due to tariffs, and the Fed maintaining high - interest rates [4][5][6] Detailed Summaries by Category Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,640 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 8.56%, and the historical percentile is 6.6% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, the strategy is to short 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2508C80000 call options when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase, the strategy is to long 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Copper Market Data Futures Data - The latest price of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 78,640 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract rose 400 yuan/ton (0.51%), and the Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract had no change. The LME copper 3M contract was at 9,664 US dollars/ton, down 30.5 US dollars (-0.31%), and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.96, down 0.1 (-1.24%) [6] Spot Data - Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper was at 78,415 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan (0.11%); Shanghai Wumaotong was at 78,420 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan (0.1%); Guangdong Nanchu was at 78,430 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan (0.13%); Yangtze Non - ferrous was at 78,580 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan (0.13%). The spot premiums of major markets all declined [7] Refined - Scrap Copper Spread - The current refined - scrap copper spread (tax - included) was 1,019.57 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan (10.87%); the reasonable spread was 1,483.6 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan (0.07%). The price advantage was - 464.03 yuan/ton, down 99 yuan (-17.58%) [9] Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts totaled 22,425 tons, down 3,103 tons (-12.16%); LME copper inventory totaled 94,675 tons, down 1,200 tons (-1.25%); COMEX copper inventory totaled 203,335 tons, up 7,289 tons (3.72%) [12][14][16] Import Profit and Processing Fees - The copper import profit was - 2,522.29 yuan/ton, down 1,315.91 yuan (109.08%); the copper concentrate TC was - 43.8 US dollars/ton, with no change [17]