泸州老窖（000568）：目标稳健，经营务实

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes a stable target and pragmatic operations, with a focus on sustainable development and maintaining a healthy channel [6] - The company has announced a share buyback plan, with the controlling shareholder increasing their stake to 50.98% [6] - The dividend payout ratio for 2024-2026 is set to be no less than 65%, 70%, and 75% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, with a minimum cash dividend of 8.5 billion RMB each year [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 31,208 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is estimated at 13,532 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.4% [5] - The earnings per share for 2025 is expected to be 9.19 RMB [5] - The gross margin is forecasted to be 87.3% for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 25.9% [5] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 is projected at 12x, which is considered reasonable compared to leading high-end liquor companies [6] Recent Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 93.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.78% [6] - The net profit for Q1 2025 was 45.9 billion RMB, with a net profit margin of 49.3% [6] - The cash flow from operating activities in Q1 2025 was 33.1 billion RMB, a decrease of 24.1% year-on-year [6]