南华煤焦产业风险管理日报-20250625

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The easing of the Middle - East situation and the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran led to a flash crash in overseas crude oil, which may affect the overall sentiment of commodities. Although the coking coal futures market has shown strength recently, this rebound has not boosted the sentiment in the spot market. Downstream enterprises generally lack confidence in future demand, and the inventory of upstream coking coal mines continues to accumulate, with significant pressure on spot sales. After four rounds of price cuts, the probability of an immediate price increase is low. The industry can focus on hedging opportunities at low basis levels [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors affecting the coal - coking market. Positive factors include开工 fluctuations in mines and coal - washing plants during the safety production month, price support at the pithead during the peak demand season for thermal coal, high hot - metal production, stable steel - mill profitability, and the absence of obvious off - season characteristics in steel products. Negative factors are the overall goal of stable coal production and supply throughout the year, and the potential decline in coal - coking demand due to the possible inflection point in hot - metal production [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - Coking Coal: The monthly price range is predicted to be 700 - 850, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 38.23% and a historical percentile of 76.11% [2]. - Coke: The monthly price range is predicted to be 1320 - 1450, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 26.97% and a historical percentile of 55.42% [2]. 3.2 Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Recommendations | Behavior Orientation | Scenario Analysis | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Lock in selling price | Steel mills propose price cuts for coke, worried about coke price decline | Long | Short coke 2509 contract | J2509 | Sell | 25% | 1400 - 1420 | | | | | | | | 50% | 1420 - 1450 | | Lock in selling price | High inventory of coking coal in the spot market, worried about further price decline | Long | Short coking coal 2509 contract | JM2509 | Sell | 25% | 800 - 820 | | | | | | | | 50% | 820 - 850 | [2] 3.3 Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report | Commodity | Unit | 2025 - 06 - 25 | 2025 - 06 - 24 | Month - on - Month | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | Tons | 18221 | 18221 | 0 | | Hot - rolled coil | Tons | 72293 | 74357 | - 2064 | | Iron ore | Lots | 3000 | 3000 | 0 | | Coking coal | Lots | 0 | 100 | - 100 | | Coke | Lots | 90 | 90 | 0 | | Ferrosilicon | Sheets | 6415 | 0 | 6415 | | Silicomanganese | Sheets | 93468 | 93769 | - 301 | [3] 3.4 Coal - Coking Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: The report provides data on coking coal and coke futures prices, including warehouse - receipt costs, basis, and price differences between different contracts on different dates, as well as daily and weekly price changes [7]. - Spot Prices: It includes the prices of various types of coking coal and coke, such as the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal, the self - pick - up price of Mongolian coal, the CFR price of imported coal, and the ex - factory and warehouse - out prices of coke, along with their daily and weekly price changes [8].