高盛：中国经济展望 ——2025 年 6 月（PPT）

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on China's real GDP growth due to demographic, debt, and de-risking challenges, while acknowledging potential upside risks from faster AI adoption [7][8]. Core Insights - China achieved a growth target of "around 5%" in 2024, primarily driven by exports and related manufacturing investments [5]. - The 2025 growth forecast is set at 4.6%, slightly above consensus, with inflation forecasts below consensus (CPI at 0.0% and PPI at -2.4%) [8][10]. - The report anticipates a widening fiscal deficit by 2.4 percentage points of GDP in 2025 compared to 2024, with total social financing stock growth expected to rise to 9.5% [8][10]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth Forecasts - The report outlines that China's GDP growth is projected at 4.6% for 2025, with domestic demand contributing 4.5% and consumption at 4.9% [10]. - Exports of goods are expected to decline by 2.4% in nominal USD terms, while imports are projected to decrease by 4.2% [10]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - CPI is forecasted to be 0.0% and PPI at -2.4% for 2025, indicating low inflationary pressures [8][10]. - The report suggests further cuts in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and policy rates in Q4 2025 [8]. Fiscal Policy and Government Debt - The augmented fiscal deficit is expected to reach 13.0% of GDP in 2025, reflecting increased government spending [10][60]. - China's total government debt is projected to be RMB166 trillion, which is 131% of GDP [69]. Trade and External Factors - Elevated US tariffs on Chinese goods are anticipated to negatively impact GDP growth, although exports to other countries may provide some offset [8]. - The report notes that the US effective tariff rate on China has dropped, which may reduce the drag on GDP growth [15]. Policy Measures - Ongoing and planned policy easing measures are expected to support technology and high-quality growth, with specific programs aimed at boosting consumption and investment [63].