高盛：金斯瑞生物科技-2025 年中国医疗企业日-关键要点

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Genscript Biotech Corp. is "Buy" with a 12-month price target of HK$27.34, indicating an upside potential of 84.5% from the current price of HK$14.82 [8]. Core Insights - Management highlighted that ProBio revenues are expected to bottom out, driven by the LaNova deal, with a projected revenue of US$95 million in FY24, reflecting a 13% year-over-year decline [5]. - The protein segment is anticipated to become the second growth engine for the life science group, with a significant increase in revenue contribution from 23% in 2023 to nearly 30% [6]. - The company expects a steadily improving bottom line, with share buybacks and dividends under consideration as profitability improves starting from 2025 [6]. Summary by Sections ProBio Performance - ProBio revenues are projected to recover, with management confident that the revenue is bottoming out due to factors such as improved funding for biotech clients and stabilizing pricing in China [5]. - The LaNova/Merck deal is expected to contribute significantly, with US$235 million booked in the first half and an additional US$75 million milestone expected in 2H25 [5]. Life Science Group Growth - The life science group has shown steady growth of 10-20% over the years, with gene synthesis having a total addressable market (TAM) of US$1-2 billion, while customized protein synthesis is expected to have a TAM 10 times larger [6]. - The company is reallocating resources to enhance growth in the protein synthesis sector, which is expected to be a major growth driver in the coming years [6]. Financial Outlook - Excluding the impact from Legend deconsolidation, the adjusted net profit for the ex-Legend businesses is expected to reach US$60 million in FY24, with consistent profitability anticipated starting in 2025 [6]. - Management expects the EBITDA break-even point for ProBio to be achieved when revenues reach US$150-200 million, with Bestzyme remaining at break-even until 2027 [6].