Redwall(SZ:002809) Great Wall Securities·2025-06-25 15:04Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next six months [4]. Core Views - The official production of the Daya Bay project is expected to contribute significantly to the company's performance growth, with a focus on expanding its fine chemical segment [1]. - The company has established a cost advantage in obtaining ethylene oxide, which is crucial for its production, particularly in light of rising costs due to international conflicts and tariffs [2]. - Despite facing short-term profit pressures due to stable volumes and declining prices, the company is anticipated to gradually recover its profitability as production capacity utilization improves [3][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to decline from 761 million yuan in 2023 to 675 million yuan in 2024, before rebounding to 967 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 43.2% [1]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 86 million yuan in 2023 to 49 million yuan in 2024, then recover to 55 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 11.9% [1]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve from 2.9% in 2024 to 6.7% by 2027 [1]. Production and Market Position - The Daya Bay project includes the production of various chemical products, which will enhance the company's product line and optimize its structure, leading to improved profitability [1]. - The company has secured a framework agreement with CNOOC Shell to obtain ethylene oxide, which will bolster its upstream supply chain and reduce transportation costs [2]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 55 million yuan, 95 million yuan, and 120 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 73%, and 27% [8]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 47, 27, and 21 times, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend as profitability improves [8].