Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-06-26 04:12Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: June 26, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] 1. Copper Price and Volatility - Latest copper price: 78,810 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 8.58%, and the current volatility historical percentile is 6.7% [2] 2. Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline: - Strategy: Short 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton, and sell 25% of call options (CU2508C80000) when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase: - Strategy: Long 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. Important News and Factors - Fundamental situation: Stable [3] 利多因素 - Sino - US tariff policy easing, lower inventory levels, and the US dollar index hovering at a low level [4] 利空因素 - Tariff policy reversals, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, and the Fed maintaining high interest rates [5][6] 4. Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data (Daily) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | yuan/ton | 78,810 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 78,680 | 200 | 0.25% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 78,270 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 9,664 | - 30.5 | - 0.31% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 7.9 | - 0.06 | - 0.75% | [6] Spot Data (Daily) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 78,580 | 165 | 0.21% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade | yuan/ton | 78,560 | 140 | 0.18% | | Guangdong Nanchu | yuan/ton | 78,590 | 160 | 0.2% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 78,740 | 160 | 0.2% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 30 | - 10 | - 25% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | - 20 | - 40 | - 200% | | Guangdong Nanchu Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 25 | - 5 | - 16.67% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 70 | - 15 | - 17.65% | [7] 5. Copper Scrap - Refined Spread Tax - included - Current scrap - refined spread: 1,099.57 yuan/ton, daily change 80 yuan, daily change rate 7.85% - Reasonable scrap - refined spread: 1,484.4 yuan/ton, daily change 0.8 yuan, daily change rate 0.05% - Price advantage: - 384.83 yuan/ton, daily change 79.2 yuan, daily change rate - 17.07% Tax - excluded - Current scrap - refined spread: 5,740 yuan/ton, daily change 80 yuan, daily change rate 1.41% - Reasonable scrap - refined spread: 6,143.74 yuan/ton, daily change 5.56 yuan, daily change rate 0.09% - Price advantage: - 403.74 yuan/ton, daily change 74.44 yuan, daily change rate - 15.57% [9] 6. Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts (Daily) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 21,470 | - 955 | - 4.26% | | Total International Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 1,903 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 14,033 | - 904 | - 6.05% | | Total Bonded SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total Tax - paid SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 21,470 | - 955 | - 4.26% | [12] LME Copper Inventory (Daily) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total LME Copper Inventory | tons | 93,475 | - 1,200 | - 1.27% | | European LME Copper Inventory | tons | 36,525 | - 825 | - 2.21% | | Asian LME Copper Inventory | tons | 58,150 | - 375 | - 0.64% | | North American LME Copper Inventory | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total LME Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts | tons | 56,250 | 1,725 | 3.16% | | Total LME Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | tons | 37,225 | - 2,925 | - 7.29% | [14] COMEX Copper Inventory (Weekly) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total COMEX Copper Inventory | tons | 204,316 | 6,955 | 3.52% | | Total COMEX Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts | tons | 98,357 | - 11,008 | - 0.89% | | Total COMEX Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | tons | 105,959 | 1,865 | 1.79% | [16] 7. Copper Import Profit and Processing | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Import Profit/Loss | yuan/ton | - 2,522.29 | - 1,315.91 | 109.08% | | Copper Concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 43.8 | 0 | 0% | [17]