特斯拉销量跟踪报告：2025年销量展望谨慎，Robotaxi打开新商业版图

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [33]. Core Insights - Tesla's Q1 2025 deliveries were 337,000 units, representing a year-on-year decline of 13% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 32%. The decline is attributed to weak product cycles and a lack of new model stimulation [1][8]. - The forecast for Tesla's 2025 sales is cautiously estimated at 1.604 million units, reflecting a 10% decrease. This is influenced by product cycle issues, declining subsidies for new energy vehicles, and increasing competition in the global market [19][20]. - The Robotaxi pilot program launched in Austin, Texas, is expected to open new business opportunities, with projections indicating that the Robotaxi market could reach $352.6 billion globally by 2035 [15][16]. Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, Model 3/Y deliveries were approximately 324,000 units, down 12% year-on-year and 31% quarter-on-quarter. Other models (Model S/X, Cybertruck) delivered 13,000 units, down 24% year-on-year and 46% quarter-on-quarter [1][8]. - Regional performance showed the U.S. at 123,000 units (-1%), Canada at 200 units (-84%), Europe at 54,000 units (-37%), and China at 135,000 units (+2%) [1][8]. Production Capacity - Tesla's nominal production capacity exceeds 2.35 million units annually, with no significant increases in capacity from Q3 2024 to Q1 2025. The focus will remain on the production of Cybercab and Model Semi [11][20]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of mid-term product cycle changes and advancements in AI, which may shift market focus from short-term performance to long-term technological leadership [19]. - The potential for sales adjustments exists if there are positive changes in product strength and marketing strategies [20].