HLC(SH:600731) Huachuang Securities·2025-06-26 11:56Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for Hunan Haili, with a target price of 9.9 CNY per share [2][11]. Core Viewpoints - Hunan Haili is a leading company in the carbamate pesticide industry, leveraging its strong R&D capabilities and abundant resources to maintain a dominant market position. The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the pesticide industry and the expansion of its unique product, Methyl Pyrimidine Phosphorus [7][9][10]. - The report anticipates significant revenue growth for the company, projecting revenues of 2,471 million CNY in 2024, increasing to 4,775 million CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34% from 2024 to 2027 [3][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2024: 2,471 million CNY - 2025: 3,243 million CNY (31.3% YoY growth) - 2026: 4,016 million CNY (23.8% YoY growth) - 2027: 4,775 million CNY (18.9% YoY growth) [3][11] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2024: 265 million CNY - 2025: 368 million CNY (38.6% YoY growth) - 2026: 502 million CNY (36.5% YoY growth) - 2027: 633 million CNY (26.0% YoY growth) [3][11] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2024: 0.47 CNY - 2025: 0.66 CNY - 2026: 0.90 CNY - 2027: 1.13 CNY [3][11] - Valuation Ratios: - Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio: Expected to decrease from 15 in 2025 to 6 in 2027 - Price-to-Book (PB) Ratio: Expected to decrease from 1.3 in 2025 to 1.0 in 2027 [3][11]. Company Overview - Hunan Haili is recognized as the first listed company in Hunan Province, with a strong backing from the Hunan Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [15][24]. - The company has established a robust production capacity of 28,000 tons for carbamate pesticides, with additional capacity being released from its Ningxia base [7][9][10]. Industry Insights - The carbamate pesticide sector is expected to experience a recovery due to the increasing demand for high-toxicity traditional pesticides, which are currently in short supply [7][9][45]. - The global pesticide market has shown a consistent growth trend, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 4.2% from 2017 to 2023, driven by the rising global population [46][49].