美光科技（MU）：营收盈利指引均超预期，HBM营收环比+50%

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of $170 [7][8] Core Insights - The company reported FY25Q3 revenue of $9.3 billion, which is a 37% year-over-year increase and a 15% quarter-over-quarter increase, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates of $8.85 billion [2] - Adjusted EPS for FY25Q3 was $1.91, up 208% year-over-year and 22% quarter-over-quarter, also surpassing consensus expectations of $1.60 [2] - The company plans to reduce NAND wafer capacity by over 10% by the end of FY25 to balance supply and demand [1][2] - HBM revenue exceeded $1.5 billion in FY25Q3, with a quarter-over-quarter growth of over 50%, and is expected to account for 20-25% of market share in FY25H2 [3][4] Revenue and Profitability - FY25Q3 DRAM revenue was $7.1 billion, a 51% year-over-year increase, while NAND revenue was $2.2 billion, with a quarter-over-quarter growth of 16% [2] - The adjusted gross margin, operating margin, and net margin increased to 39.0%, 26.8%, and 23.4% respectively, compared to 37.9%, 24.9%, and 22.1% in FY25Q2 [2] - The company provided guidance for FY25Q4 revenue of $10.7 billion, with adjusted EPS of $2.50, both higher than consensus estimates [2] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is benefiting from increased demand for HBM driven by GPU and ASIC applications, with significant supply agreements with major clients including NVIDIA and AMD [1][3] - The company has begun sampling HBM4 to major clients, with plans for mass production in early 2026 [4][14] - The competitive landscape includes rivals like SK Hynix and Samsung, both of which are also advancing their HBM technologies [13][15] Valuation and Future Outlook - The target price has been raised from $144 to $170, reflecting a shift to a 3.0x FY26E price-to-book ratio [4][38] - The company is expected to benefit from the growing AI accelerator market, with HBM becoming a critical component [4][38] - Revenue projections for FY26 are estimated at $45.4 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 25.8% [6][40]