Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-06-27 07:48Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily for June 27, 2025, prepared by the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Group 2: Tin Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 267,270 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 19.07%, and the current volatility historical percentile is 47.0% [2] Group 3: Tin Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline (long spot exposure), it is recommended to sell short the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 290,000 yuan/ton with a 100% hedging ratio and sell call options (SN2508C275000) at an appropriate volatility with a 25% hedging ratio [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase (short spot exposure), it is recommended to buy long the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio and sell put options (SN2508P245000) at an appropriate volatility with a 25% hedging ratio [2] Group 4: Market Factors Positive Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations [4] Negative Factors - Tariff policy reversals, Myanmar's production resumption, and the semiconductor sector's expansion speed slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [5][6] Group 5: Tin Futures and Spot Data Futures Data (Daily) - The latest price of the main Shanghai tin futures is 267,270 yuan/ton (unchanged), the Shanghai tin continuous - one is 267,260 yuan/ton (unchanged), the Shanghai tin continuous - three is 266,880 yuan/ton (unchanged), the LME tin 3M is 33,140 US dollars/ton (up 680 US dollars, 2.09%), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.12 (up 0.08, 1%) [6] Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 265,800 yuan/ton (up 1,400 yuan, 0.53%), 1 tin premium is 500 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan, - 28.57%), 40% tin concentrate is 253,800 yuan/ton (up 1,400 yuan, 0.55%), 60% tin concentrate is 257,800 yuan/ton (up 1,400 yuan, 0.55%), 60A solder bar is 172,750 yuan/ton (up 1,000 yuan, 0.58%), 63A solder bar is 180,250 yuan/ton (up 1,000 yuan, 0.56%), and lead - free solder is 271,750 yuan/ton (up 1,500 yuan, 0.56%) [10][13] Group 6: Tin Import and Processing Import and Processing Data (Daily) - Tin import profit and loss is - 11,873.99 yuan/ton (up 843.25 yuan, - 6.63%), 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton (unchanged) [15] Group 7: Tin Inventory Inventory Data (Daily) - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,591 tons (up 119 tons, 1.84%), with 4,242 tons in Guangdong (up 125 tons, 3.04%) and 1,424 tons in Shanghai (down 6 tons, - 0.42%). The total LME tin inventory is 2,115 tons (down 40 tons, - 1.86%) [17]