Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-06-27 08:49Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand side shows a pattern of reduced supply with a false increase. The supply side shrinks slightly due to the decrease in the operating rate of refineries in South China. The inventory changes little month - on - month, and the demand shows characteristics of the rainy season. The biggest variable is the geopolitical premium caused by the Israel - Iran conflict. The short - term asphalt futures price fluctuates following the cost - end crude oil. In the short term (from mid - late June to early August), it is necessary to see if the decline in demand growth due to the rainy season can match the increase in production growth under high profits. In the long - term, there is still an expected increase in demand in the last year of the 14th Five - Year Plan, and the peak season performance is still worth looking forward to [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1. Asphalt Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 27.20%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 58.33% [1] 3.2. Asphalt Risk Management Strategy 3.2.1. Inventory Management - When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about the decline in asphalt prices, for enterprises with long spot exposure, they can short the asphalt futures (bu2509) according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The recommended selling ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is 3650 - 3750 [1] 3.2.2. Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and enterprises hope to purchase according to order situations, for those with short spot exposure, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying ratio is 50%, and the recommended entry range is 3300 - 3400 [1] 3.3. Core Contradictions and Influencing Factors 3.3.1. Core Contradictions - The supply - demand side has a complex situation, and the biggest variable is the Israel - Iran conflict. The short - term price follows crude oil, and it is necessary to observe the matching of supply and demand growth in the short and long terms [2] 3.3.2. Bullish Factors - The asphalt's own inventory structure is good; there is a seasonal peak in demand; the increase in crude oil prices significantly raises the cost [2][4] 3.3.3. Bearish Factors - The cracking remains at a high level; after the end of maintenance, the output of some refineries recovers; the rainy season in the South drags down demand; the easing of the Middle East situation leads to the return of the war premium on crude oil [4] 3.4. Asphalt Price and Basis Data 3.4.1. Spot Price - On June 27, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3805 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week); the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3780 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week); the North China spot price was 3750 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week); the South China spot price was 3650 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week) [2] 3.4.2. Basis - On June 27, 2025, the Shandong spot 09 basis was 244 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton from the previous day, up 191 yuan/ton week - on - week); the Yangtze River Delta spot 09 basis was 219 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton from the previous day, up 196 yuan/ton week - on - week); the North China spot 09 basis was 189 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan/ton from the previous day, up 136 yuan/ton week - on - week); the South China spot 09 basis was 89 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton from the previous day, up 166 yuan/ton week - on - week) [5] 3.4.3. Cracking - On June 27, 2025, the cracking of Shandong spot to Brent was 181.3768 yuan/barrel (unchanged from the previous day, up 67.1332 yuan/barrel week - on - week); the cracking of the futures main contract to Brent was 139.0944 yuan/barrel (down 0.3466 yuan/barrel from the previous day, up 34.0351 yuan/barrel week - on - week) [5] 3.5. Seasonal Charts - There are seasonal charts of asphalt 09 contract basis in Shandong, North China, Yangtze River Delta, and Northeast regions; asphalt futures month - spreads (06 - 09 and 09 - 12); domestic asphalt refinery total inventory rate (Baichuan sample); asphalt warehouse and factory - warehouse receipt quantities; and domestic asphalt social inventory rate (Baichuan sample) [6][11][13]