Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-06-27 14:31Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The impact of geopolitical factors on ethylene glycol prices is gradually subsiding, and price influence is now mainly driven by fundamentals [3]. - The easing of the Israel - Iran conflict led to a significant rise in crude oil prices, pushing up the polyester sector. Coal - based profits are expected to expand, but the additional supply increase is limited [3]. - The US requirement for export licenses for ethane to China poses a long - term risk to the raw material supply of ethane - to - ethylene glycol plants, but the impact on the supply side before August is expected to be limited [3]. - The planned production cuts by bottle - chip factories will weaken the demand for ethylene glycol [4]. - With the easing of the situation, crude oil prices have dropped, mainly affecting coal - based production profits, but the impact on production plans is limited, mainly leading to a downward shift in the absolute price range [6]. - The previous expectation of reduced ethylene glycol imports may be overestimated, with the main loss expected in August. Future focus should be on the recovery of Iranian plants and port shipments [6]. 3. Detailed Summaries by Section 3.1 Polyester Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - Price Range Forecast: The monthly price ranges for ethylene glycol, PX, PTA, and bottle - chip are 4000 - 4600, 6400 - 7300, 4400 - 5300, and 5700 - 6400 respectively. Their 20 - day rolling volatilities are 20.02%, 30.37%, 28.78%, and 22.42%, and the historical percentiles of volatility over 3 years are 49.6%, 86.2%, 83.7%, and 70.4% [2]. - Hedging Strategies: - Inventory Management: For high finished - product inventory and concerns about ethylene glycol price drops, short ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) at 25% hedging ratio in the 4400 - 4500 range. Buy put options (EG2509P4200) and sell call options (EG2509C4500) with a 50% hedging ratio in the 20 - 40 and 40 - 60 ranges respectively [2]. - Procurement Management: For low procurement inventory, long ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) at a 50% hedging ratio in the 4200 - 4250 range. Sell put options (EG2509P4150) at a 75% hedging ratio in the 50 - 80 range [2]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - The direct impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on ethylene glycol is mainly on cost - end crude oil price fluctuations and supply - end disruptions. Currently, the influence of geopolitics is fading, and price influence is back to being fundamentally driven [3]. 3.3利多解读 - The easing of the Israel - Iran conflict led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, driving up the polyester sector. Coal - based profits are expected to expand, but the additional supply increase is limited due to factors like device operating conditions [3]. - The US requirement for export licenses for ethane to China poses a long - term risk to the raw material supply of ethane - to - ethylene glycol plants, but the impact on the supply side before August is expected to be limited [3]. 3.4利空解读 - The planned production cuts by bottle - chip factories, expected to affect 230 - 300 million tons of total capacity, will weaken the demand for ethylene glycol [4]. - With the easing of the situation, crude oil prices have dropped, mainly affecting coal - based production profits. Although coal - based profits have been compressed, they remain at a good level, and the impact on production plans is limited, mainly leading to a downward shift in the absolute price range [6]. - The previous expectation of reduced ethylene glycol imports may be overestimated. Iran's ethylene glycol production is about 1.9 billion tons, with about half exported to China. The actual monthly supply to the Chinese market is about 80,000 tons, accounting for about 10% of China's imports. The main loss is expected in August, and future focus should be on the recovery of Iranian plants and port shipments [6]. 3.5 Polyester Daily Data - Price and Spread: The report provides price data for various polyester - related products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, and polyester fibers, as well as their daily and weekly changes, and data on spreads and basis [7][8]. - Processing Fees and Production - Sales Ratios: It also includes data on processing fees for different products and production - sales ratios of polyester filaments and short - fibers [8].