多元资产配置系列：红利资产替代能否破局低利率？

Group 1 - The report indicates that in a low interest rate environment, dividend assets can serve as a good supplement to bonds, but they cannot fully replace them due to differing risk-return characteristics. Historical data shows that during periods of declining interest rates, dividend asset yields have increased, with current low-volatility dividend stock yields exceeding 6% while the 10-year government bond yield is below 1.8% [3][11][12] - The volatility of dividend assets is significantly higher than that of bonds. Over the past decade, the volatility of mainstream dividend indices has been much greater than that of bond indices, with the lowest annualized volatility of the best-performing dividend asset (the low-volatility dividend index in 2017) still exceeding bonds by nearly 5 percentage points [3][14][16] - The report suggests a paradigm shift in the approach to dividend assets in stock-bond allocation, moving from "replacing stocks" to "replacing bonds" as the traditional safety net effect of pure bond assets weakens due to significantly compressed coupon yields [3][43] Group 2 - Insights into bond fund performance reveal that during periods of rapid interest rate declines, the proportion of funds outperforming benchmarks is limited. Over the past four and a half years, the average proportion of short and medium-long bond funds outperforming benchmarks has been around 57.6%, with nearly 60% of bond funds underperforming benchmarks in 2024 [3][52][55] - The report highlights a significant difference in the holdings of dividend assets between banks and insurance companies in Japan. Banks hold an average of 10.27% of the high dividend index, while insurance companies hold only 3.55%, indicating a much larger total position for banks compared to insurance companies [3][57][61]