BAIRUN CORPORATION(SZ:002568) Huachuang Securities·2025-06-29 06:46Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Recommended" rating to the company with a target price of 30 yuan, based on a projected market value of 310 billion yuan [2][7]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leader in the ready-to-drink (RTD) beverage sector and is accelerating its entry into the whiskey market, aiming to establish itself as a benchmark in the industry and create a second growth curve [5][12]. - The whiskey segment is identified as a potential growth area, with a market size estimated to exceed 150 billion yuan, given the current low penetration of whiskey in China's liquor consumption [5][8]. - The company has a strong production capacity and a commitment to consumer education, which are seen as key advantages in capturing market share in the whiskey category [5][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, founded in 1997, initially focused on flavor production and has since become a leader in the RTD market with a revenue share of approximately 90% from RTD beverages [12][13]. - It has strategically entered the whiskey market, launching brands "Lai Zhou" and "Bailide" in 2024, with plans for further expansion [12]. RTD Beverages - The RTD beverage market is characterized by a "pulse penetration" pattern, with significant growth potential despite current competitive pressures [25][33]. - The company holds a market share of about 72.5% in the RTD sector, benefiting from strong brand recognition and effective marketing strategies [39][41]. - The RTD segment is expected to stabilize and grow, supported by new product launches and improved marketing operations [5][6]. Whiskey Market - The whiskey market in China is currently underdeveloped, with only 0.5% of the liquor consumption, indicating substantial growth potential [5][8]. - The company has established a unique large-scale blending whiskey production capacity, with an annual output of 26,000 tons of grain whiskey, and a significant inventory of barrels [5][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of flavor innovation and consumer education in driving the growth of domestic whiskey brands [5][8]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3,048 million yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% expected through 2026 [6]. - Net profit forecasts for the company are 719 million yuan in 2024, increasing to 1,122 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [6][7].