能源化工天然橡胶周度报告-20250629

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of the rubber market remains weak, and the upward space for price increases is limited. Although the natural rubber market has shown a recovery trend driven by capital sentiment and synthetic rubber, raw material prices are showing signs of weakness, weakening cost - support expectations. High inventory levels in the spot market also suppress the market, restricting the rebound space of rubber prices. In the short term, rubber prices are expected to remain range - bound [76]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - In May 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to decrease by 1.2% to 1.04 million tons, an increase of 35.6% from the previous month, while consumption was expected to slightly decrease by 0.1% to 1.27 million tons, an increase of 1.7% from the previous month. For the whole year of 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons, and consumption was expected to increase by 1.3% to 15.565 million tons. The significant price fluctuations in the natural rubber market in May were mainly due to increased tapping activities caused by favorable weather, along with concerns from decreased tire industry demand and trade - tariff uncertainties. Trade tensions eased due to Sino - US negotiations [5]. - China plans to pilot a 0% tariff on rubber directly imported from the Thai National Rubber Farmers' Network through the Mekong River channel (northern route). Chinese factories are preparing to directly purchase 300 tons of rubber from Thai farmers, which has worried Chinese traders who buy rubber from southern Thailand [6]. Market Trends - This week, both domestic and international rubber markets rose, with Japanese rubber showing a relatively large increase. On June 27, 2025, the closing prices of RU2509, NR2509, Singapore TSR20:2509, and Tokyo RSS3:2509 were 14,045 yuan/ton, 12,160 yuan/ton, 163.60 cents/kg, and 313.70 yen/kg respectively, with weekly increases of 1.04%, 1.46%, 1.36%, and 4.60% [9][10]. Basis and Spread - The basis of whole - milk rubber to RU was - 45 yuan/ton on June 27, 2025, and the 09 - 01 spread was - 825 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1.20% compared to June 20, 2025, and a year - on - year increase of 29.49% [11]. - The spreads of RU - NR and RU - JPX RSS3 decreased, while the spreads of RU - BR and NR - SGX TSR20 increased. On June 27, 2025, the values of RU09 - NR09, RU09 - BR09, NR09 - TSR20 09, and RU09 - Tokyo RSS3 09 spreads were 1,885 yuan/ton, 2,870 yuan/ton, 441.82 yuan/ton, and - 1,518.60 yuan/ton respectively [18][19]. - This week, the offer center of the imported rubber market weakened. The offer center of domestic natural rubber spot followed the narrow - range adjustment of the market. The difference between whole - milk and Thai - mixed rubber decreased, and the difference between 3L and Thai - mixed rubber also decreased [21][26]. - Crude oil drove the decline of synthetic rubber, while RU rose slightly, and the spread between synthetic rubber and RU widened. On June 27, 2025, the prices of domestic mainstream butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber were 11,550 yuan/ton and 11,950 yuan/ton respectively [29][30]. Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was at a low level, and the settled funds were at a low level year - on - year. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR rebounded to a high level, and the settled funds rebounded to a high level. On June 27, 2025, the virtual - to - physical ratios of RU and NR were 8.36 and 17.31 respectively, and the settled funds were 4.51 billion yuan and 1.169 billion yuan respectively [32][33]. Fundamental Data Supply - In Thailand, the temperature in the northeast was slightly lower this week, with more rainfall year - on - year, while the weather in the south was relatively normal. In China, rainfall in Hainan decreased, and rainfall in Yunnan was higher year - on - year [37][38]. - Overseas tapping operations gradually resumed, and raw material purchase prices significantly weakened during the period. On June 27, 2025, the prices of Thai cup lump, Thai latex, Thai smoked sheet, Thai raw sheet, Hainan latex (for whole - milk production), and Yunnan latex (for whole - milk production) were 47.15 baht/kg, 57 baht/kg, 65.79 baht/kg, 63 baht/kg, 12,400 yuan/ton, and 13,500 yuan/ton respectively [42][43]. - The spread between Thai latex and cup lump slightly increased, while the spread between Hainan latex for concentrated latex factories and that for whole - milk factories decreased. On June 27, 2025, the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 9.85 baht/kg, and the spread between Hainan latex for concentrated latex factories and that for whole - milk factories was 1,400 yuan/ton [49][50]. - As Thai raw material prices decreased, production profits improved. On June 27, 2025, the production profits of Thai standard rubber, Thai smoked sheet, Thai concentrated latex, and Hainan concentrated latex were - 232 yuan/ton, 1,409 yuan/ton, - 9.72 yuan/ton, and 619.48 yuan/ton respectively [52][53]. - In May 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) decreased by 13.35% month - on - month and increased by 30.40% year - on - year. The imports of Thai standard rubber and Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber were at a high level [56][57]. Demand - During the week, the capacity utilization rates of sample tire enterprises showed mixed trends. The overall capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire enterprises declined, while that of all - steel tire enterprises slightly increased. Tire inventories accumulated. On June 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires were 62.23% and 70.40% respectively, and the inventory days were 41.93 days and 48.15 days respectively [60][61]. - In May 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires increased month - on - month and maintained good year - on - year performance. The sales of passenger cars and heavy trucks increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. In May 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires were 437,800 tons and 289,100 tons respectively, and the sales of passenger cars and heavy trucks were 2.3518 million and 88,800 respectively [64][65]. Inventory - China's natural rubber inventory continued to accumulate this period, with a decrease in light - colored rubber inventory and an increase in dark - colored rubber inventory. The inventory accumulation in Qingdao's general trade exceeded expectations. As of June 27, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 192,000 tons, and the futures - spot inventory was 214,900 tons [68][72]. Operation Suggestions - Given the weak fundamentals of the rubber market, the upward space for price increases is limited. In the short term, rubber prices are expected to remain range - bound. As of June 22, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas was 6.173 million tons, and China's natural rubber social inventory was 12.86 million tons [76].