转债周度专题：“光大转债”模式再现？-20250629

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The "Everbright Convertible Bond" model reappears. The maturity repayment pressure of the "Pufa Convertible Bond" has decreased, and the allocation difficulty of bank convertible bonds has further increased. Mid - large - cap high - quality convertible bonds are expected to benefit from the spillover of "fixed income +" fund allocation demand [11]. - The current A - share market valuation is recovering. The domestic economic fundamentals and capital market may gradually start a weak resonance. Considering the influence of refinancing policies, the subsequent issuance pressure of convertible bonds is not expected to be high. However, as the stock market warms up, the inflow of incremental funds into convertible bonds drives the valuation to a historical high, and attention should be paid to the risk of valuation correction. In terms of terms, continue to pay attention to the downward revision game space, be vigilant against the forced redemption risk, and appropriately pay attention to the short - term game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Convertible Bond Weekly Special Topic and Outlook 3.1.1. The Reappearance of the "Everbright Convertible Bond" Model - Qilu Bank announced that the "Qilu Convertible Bond" is expected to trigger redemption. From June 24th to June 26th, Qilu Bank's stock price closed above the redemption price line for three consecutive days, only two trading days away from triggering redemption [10]. - As of June 25th, Xinfeng No. 1 single asset management plan under Cinda Securities increased its holdings of Pufa Bank's convertible bonds, and then transferred them to Cinda Investment on June 26th. On June 27th, the scale of the "Pufa Convertible Bond" decreased, and its conversion premium rate remained around 7%. Similar operations were carried out on the "Everbright Convertible Bond" before its maturity, which greatly alleviated the maturity repayment pressure. As of June 27th, the remaining scale of the Pufa Convertible Bond was 38.211 billion yuan, and its maturity repayment pressure decreased [11]. 3.1.2. Weekly Review and Market Outlook - This week, the market generally rose, with high trading enthusiasm. From Monday to Wednesday, most Shenwan industries rose, with the non - banking sector leading and the TMT and mid - stream manufacturing sectors having relatively high increases. On Thursday, the market had a narrow - range correction, and on Friday, it showed a volatile trend, with the banking sector leading the decline [12]. - In the stock market outlook, the current A - share market valuation is recovering. The rebound of export orders drove a narrow - range recovery of the May PMI. Policies such as large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in are expected to boost domestic demand, but the export growth rate may decline. For convertible bonds, the subsequent issuance pressure is not expected to be high. Pay attention to the risk of valuation correction, the downward revision game space, forced redemption risk, and short - term game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds. Industries to focus on include hot topics, domestic demand directions, central state - owned enterprises represented by "central - headed" stocks, and the military industry [12][13]. 3.2. Weekly Tracking of the Convertible Bond Market 3.2.1. The Equity Market Rose, with TMT, Military, and Non - Banking Sectors Leading - This week, major equity market indices rose. The Wind All - A Index rose 3.56%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.91%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.73%, and the ChiNext Index rose 5.69%. The market style was more inclined to small - cap value. Among small - cap indices, the CSI 1000 Index rose 4.62%, and the STAR 50 Index rose 3.17% [17]. - Twenty - eight Shenwan industry indices rose, and three industries declined. The computer, national defense and military, and non - banking finance industries led the market with increases of 7.70%, 6.90%, and 6.66% respectively. The petroleum and petrochemical, food and beverage, and transportation industries were among the top three decliners, with declines of 2.07%, 0.88%, and 0.24% respectively [19]. 3.2.2. The Convertible Bond Market Rose Significantly, and the Premium Rate of 100 - Yuan Par Value Increased Significantly - This week, the convertible bond market rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.08%, the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rose 1.94%, and the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 2.30%. The Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose 2.57%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Weighted Index rose 2.03%. The average daily trading volume of convertible bonds decreased compared with last week [21]. - At the industry level, 29 convertible bond industries rose, with the communication, national defense and military, and automobile industries leading the gains with increases of 4.59%, 4.22%, and 3.54% respectively. The public utilities, banking, and food and beverage industries had relatively weak increases. Most individual convertible bonds rose. In terms of price, the number of low - priced convertible bonds decreased, and the median price of convertible bonds rose. The weighted conversion value of the whole market increased, and the premium rate decreased [27][33][35]. 3.2.3. High - Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds 3.2.3.1. Classification Valuation Changes - This week, the valuations of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds increased significantly. Only the valuations of convertible bonds with a par value of 80 - 90 yuan decreased, while the valuations of other par - value convertible bonds increased. The valuations of AAA - rated convertible bonds increased, the conversion premium rates of A - and below - rated convertible bonds decreased significantly, and the valuations of other rated convertible bonds decreased slightly. The valuations of large - cap convertible bonds increased, while the valuations of convertible bonds in other scale brackets decreased [44]. 3.2.3.2. Market Index Performance - This week, convertible bonds of all ratings rose. Since 2023, AAA convertible bonds have recorded a 17.14% return, AA + convertible bonds a 3.39% return, AA convertible bonds a 6.95% return, AA - convertible bonds a 14.45% return, A + convertible bonds a 17.04% return, and A - and below - rated convertible bonds a 22.36% return. Historically, high - rated AAA convertible bonds have shown stable performance, while low - rated convertible bonds have shown weaker downside resistance and greater rebound strength [53]. - This week, convertible bonds of all scales rose. Since 2023, small - cap convertible bonds have recorded a 16.74% return, small - medium - cap convertible bonds a 16.09% return, medium - cap convertible bonds an 11.65% return, and large - cap convertible bonds a 12.43% return [55]. 3.3. Convertible Bond Supply and Terms Tracking 3.3.1. This Week's Primary Plan Issuance - There were no newly listed convertible bonds this week, and the total amount of convertible bonds awaiting listing was 7.154 billion yuan. Among them, the Bo 25 Convertible Bond (with a scale of 2.802 billion yuan) was announced to be issued on July 1st, and there were 6 issued but unlisted convertible bonds. The number of primary approvals this week was 10. Kaizhong Co., Ltd. (308 million yuan) was approved for registration, and 4 convertible bonds were accepted by the exchange [58]. - From the beginning of 2023 to June 27, 2025, the total number of planned convertible bonds was 88, with a total scale of 143.652 billion yuan. Among them, 13 convertible bonds passed the board of directors' proposal with a total scale of 17.632 billion yuan; 42 convertible bonds passed the general meeting of shareholders with a total scale of 67.203 billion yuan; 25 convertible bonds were accepted by the exchange with a total scale of 46.437 billion yuan; 3 convertible bonds passed the review committee with a total scale of 26.20 billion yuan; and 5 convertible bonds were approved for registration by the CSRC with a total scale of 9.76 billion yuan [59]. 3.3.2. Downward Revision and Redemption Clauses - As of June 28, 2025, 14 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward revision; 7 convertible bonds announced that they would not be downward - revised, among which Kewotong Convertible Bond, Tianjian Convertible Bond, and Weil Convertible Bond announced that they would not be downward - revised within 6 months; 1 convertible bond (Shanshi Convertible Bond) announced a proposed downward revision; 1 convertible bond (Jiangong Convertible Bond) announced the result of downward revision, with the downward revision reaching the bottom price [64][65]. - Five convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemption; 2 convertible bonds announced that they would not be redeemed; 4 convertible bonds (Huafeng Convertible Bond, Guansheng Convertible Bond, Jinling Convertible Bond, and Chuanheng Convertible Bond) announced early redemption. As of the end of this week, there were 3 convertible bonds still in the put option declaration period and 24 convertible bonds still in the company's capital reduction repayment declaration period [68].