铅产业链周度报告-20250629

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for lead is "Strong" in the medium - term, with a focus on the performance during the consumption peak season [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The losses of secondary lead smelters have been repaired. For primary lead, smelters in Yunnan and other regions have undergone maintenance, resulting in a reduction in supply this week. For secondary lead, the supply of waste batteries is limited due to the off - season of replacement consumption, and the price of waste batteries has increased with the rise of raw materials. Meanwhile, the secondary lead price has been more significantly boosted, and the losses of smelters have been significantly repaired this week, leading to an increase in the operating rate of secondary lead [5]. - Driven by the expectation of the consumption peak season and the impact of the mid - year node, the downstream replenishment has strengthened marginally. At the mid - year node, some battery enterprises have increased their inventory preparation stage by stage. Coupled with the continued expectation of the subsequent consumption peak season, the inventory replenishment space of enterprises has also marginally expanded. It is expected that there will still be room for demand expansion during the traditional consumption peak season in the third quarter [5]. - The supply - demand contradiction may be more prominent in the third quarter, and the price will be on a medium - term upward trend. Currently, the replacement consumption is still weak, which restricts the supply of waste batteries. However, from the demand side, the subsequent strengthening of consumption is expected to provide support. The supply - demand contradiction may gradually become prominent, and the price may fluctuate upward. Attention should be paid to the consumption performance during the peak season in the third quarter [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Trading Volume, Open Interest) - Price and Spread: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract last week was 17,125 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.87%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,170 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.26%. The closing price of LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 1,992 dollars/ton, with a decrease of 0.15%. The LME lead cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 22.14 dollars/ton last Friday, an increase of 6.35 dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was - 50 yuan/ton last Friday, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [6]. - Inventory: The SHFE lead warrant inventory last week was 45,885 tons, an increase of 2,025 tons compared to the previous week. The SHFE total lead inventory was 51,929 tons, an increase of 638 tons compared to the previous week. The social inventory was 56,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 273,425 tons, a decrease of 10,650 tons compared to the previous week, and the ratio of cancelled warrants was 25.85%, an increase of 0.60% compared to the previous week [6]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract last Friday was 40,650 lots, an increase of 13,772 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 51,800 lots, an increase of 17,693 lots compared to the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 5,471 lots, an increase of 1,635 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 151,106 lots, a decrease of 2,923 lots compared to the previous week [6] 3.2 Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - Lead Concentrate: The import volume of lead concentrate, domestic production, and inventory data are presented in the report. The import volume of lead concentrate shows certain fluctuations over the years. The inventory of lead concentrate in Lianyungang also fluctuates, and the operating rate of lead concentrate has its own trend. The processing fees for imported and domestic lead concentrates remain stable this week [24][25]. - Primary and Secondary Lead: For primary lead, smelters in Yunnan and other regions have undergone maintenance, resulting in a reduction in supply this week. The production and operating rate of primary lead show certain trends over the years. For secondary lead, the losses of smelters have been repaired this week, and the operating rate has increased. The production of primary lead and secondary lead combined also shows a certain trend [5][26]. - Waste Batteries: The supply of waste batteries is limited due to the off - season of replacement consumption, and the price of waste batteries has increased with the rise of raw materials. The price of waste batteries for electric vehicles and the cost of secondary lead show certain trends over the years [5][28] 3.3 Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - Lead - Acid Batteries: The export volume of lead - acid batteries shows certain fluctuations over the years. The operating rate of lead - acid batteries is affected by the consumption peak season expectation and the mid - year node, showing a certain trend. The monthly finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers also show certain trends [32]. - End - Users: The monthly production of automobiles and motorcycles shows certain trends over the years. The actual consumption of lead also shows a certain trend [34]