Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum is oscillating strongly with low inventory unchanged, and attention should be paid to the potential transmission of downstream negative feedback. The key contradiction lies in the total installation volume and production scheduling rhythm in the second half of the year. The confirmation of the demand inflection point still needs to wait for the confirmation of the inventory inflection point and changes in export shipping capacity. The downstream processing profit is at a low level in the same period over the years, and attention should be paid to the potential negative feedback and the resilience of downstream buying interest [3]. - Alumina has low inventory and low warehouse receipts, and the futures price is oscillating slightly higher. The resumption of production continues, but the dilemma of low inventory and few warehouse receipts remains unchanged. The valuation at the current price has become a key point affecting the long - short game. Attention should be paid to the accumulation of resumption of production to inventory and changes in port inventory [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Trading End: Spreads, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Term Spreads: The term B structure of Shanghai aluminum and alumina has narrowed. The average price of SMM A00 aluminum premium has changed from 180 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium has changed from 50 yuan/ton to -5 yuan/ton. The premium of Shandong alumina to the current month has changed from 248 yuan/ton to 119 yuan/ton, and that of Henan alumina has changed from 258 yuan/ton to 124 yuan/ton [9]. - Monthly Spreads: The monthly spread of Shanghai aluminum has widened [10]. - Open Interest: The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract has increased significantly, and the trading volume has also increased. The open interest of the alumina main contract has remained stable at a high level, and the trading volume has rebounded this week [12]. - Open Interest - Inventory Ratio: The open interest - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum has declined, and that of alumina has continued to decline and is at a historically low level [18]. Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Products - Bauxite: Port inventory and inventory days have increased. As of June 27, the weekly imported bauxite port inventory has increased by 1760000 tons compared with last week. As of May, the bauxite port inventory and inventory days in China according to the阿拉丁 caliber have continued to increase. The port shipping volume has declined, and the floating inventory has shown differentiation. The alumina enterprises' bauxite inventory has rebounded in May [24][29][30]. - Alumina: The national total inventory has increased. As of June 26, the national alumina inventory has increased by 13000 tons to 3137000 tons compared with last week. The inventory in the alumina plant, electrolytic aluminum plant, and port has increased, while the inventory in the yard/platform/in - transit has decreased slightly [50]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The inflection point of inventory accumulation needs further confirmation. As of June 26, the weekly inventory of aluminum ingot social inventory has increased by 10000 tons to 460000 tons [51]. - Aluminum Rod: Spot inventory and in - plant inventory have increased, and the shipping volume has declined [56]. - Aluminum Profiles & Plate - Foil: The raw material and finished product inventory ratios have shown differentiation. As of May, the finished product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles has declined slightly, and the raw material inventory ratio has also declined slightly. The finished product inventory of SMM aluminum plate - foil has rebounded slightly, and the raw material inventory has increased [59]. Production: Output, Production Capacity, and Operating Rate - Bauxite: The domestic bauxite supply has shown a recovery trend, but the domestic bauxite output has declined in May. The supply of imported bauxite is still an important increment. The production in different provinces has shown differentiation [63]. - Alumina: The production capacity utilization rate has remained stable, but the loose fundamental pattern has not been reversed. As of June 27, the total operating production capacity of national alumina is 90000000 tons, with a weekly increase of 1400000 tons. The weekly output of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina is 1729000 tons, an increase of 14000 tons compared with last week [70]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The operating production capacity remains at a high level, and the proportion of molten aluminum has increased seasonally. As of May, the operating production capacity of electrolytic aluminum has continued to remain at a high level, and the production capacity utilization rate has increased significantly. As of June 26, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum according to the steel union caliber is 844900 tons, an increase of 20 tons compared with last week [74]. - Downstream Processing: The output of aluminum plate - foil has continued to decline slightly. The output of recycled aluminum rods and aluminum rods has declined, and the operating rate of leading downstream aluminum enterprises has continued to decline, with a strong off - season atmosphere [75][77][78]. Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Products - Alumina: The smelter still has profits, and attention should be paid to the progress of maintenance and resumption of production. This week, the alumina profit has declined slightly, with the metallurgical - grade alumina profit of 304.9 yuan/ton according to the steel union caliber. The profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan have declined, while the profit in Guangxi is better [85]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The profit is still at a high level, but uncertain factors are interfering with market expectations. The complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainty [92][95]. - Downstream Processing: The processing fee of aluminum rods has been significantly reduced, and the downstream processing profit is still at a low level [96]. Consumption: Import Profit and Loss, Export Profit and Loss, and Apparent Demand - Import Profit and Loss: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai aluminum have rebounded [104]. - Export: From January to May, the cumulative year - on - year export of processed aluminum products has declined. In May 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products has continued to rebound, with a month - on - month increase of 29000 tons [106]. - Apparent Consumption Volume: The commercial housing transaction area has rebounded, and the automobile production has increased month - on - month [115].
铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告-20250629