Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting an increase in metal prices due to rising interest rate cut expectations [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring copper smelting negotiations, which have reached a critical point with TC/RC set at 0.0 USD/dry ton, indicating ongoing tightness in copper concentrate supply and potential production cuts in the second half of 2025 [8]. - It also notes that domestic aluminum ingot inventories are showing signs of accumulation, but the expectation of interest rate cuts may support aluminum prices moving forward [8]. - The report highlights the strong performance of specific companies, such as China Hongqiao, which is expected to see a 35% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by higher sales prices and volumes of aluminum alloy and alumina products [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector includes 125 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 295.59 billion CNY and a circulating market value of about 257.00 billion CNY [5]. 2. Market Performance - The absolute performance of the sector over the past month, six months, and twelve months has been 9.1%, 15.3%, and 22.7% respectively, indicating a strong upward trend [6]. 3. Copper Industry Insights - The report discusses the copper smelting industry, noting that the TC negotiations have reached 0.0 USD/dry ton, which may lead to increased production pressure in the latter half of 2025 [8]. - It also mentions that copper prices increased by 1.3% in response to these developments and the interest rate cut expectations [8]. 4. Aluminum Industry Insights - The report tracks aluminum inventory levels, indicating a slight increase in domestic aluminum ingot inventories, with a total of 463,000 tons reported [8]. - The report suggests that the aluminum market may face challenges due to seasonal effects but could be supported by the anticipated interest rate cuts [8]. 5. Precious Metals and Small Metals - The report recommends focusing on companies in the precious metals sector, such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining and Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Company, as well as small metals like tin and silver, which are expected to see production growth [8].
有色金属行业周报（20250623-20250627）：降息预期升温，金属价格上行-20250629