高盛：全球经济分析_为何发达市场制造业生产率长期如此疲软

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the manufacturing sector but discusses the challenges and potential for productivity growth in the context of globalization and technological advancements [3][54]. Core Insights - The report identifies an unprecedented stagnation in global manufacturing productivity over the last 20 years, attributing it to factors such as globalization, weak investment post-global financial crisis (GFC), and a slowdown in technological innovation [3][51]. - Import competition from China has negatively impacted domestic manufacturing productivity growth in developed markets (DMs), with estimates suggesting a reduction of over 0.5 percentage points in annual productivity growth due to increased import penetration [16][26]. - The report emphasizes that the biggest driver of slow manufacturing productivity growth is a decline in the pace of innovation, particularly in information and communication technology (ICT) and electronics manufacturing, which has slowed annualized productivity growth by 1.5-2 percentage points in most DMs [39][40]. Summary by Sections Globalization and Chinese Manufacturing - The report discusses how increased import competition from China has led to lower capacity utilization and reduced new factory investment in DMs, contributing to a decline in productivity growth [15][26]. - A 1 percentage point increase in import penetration from China is estimated to lower annual DM manufacturing productivity growth by 0.1-0.2 percentage points, with effects persisting for at least six years [16][20]. Weak Investment Post-GFC - The report highlights that weak investment following the GFC has significantly hindered manufacturing productivity growth, with real manufacturing investment in DMs slowing by approximately 4 percentage points relative to pre-GFC trends [31][34]. - It estimates a drag of about 0.8 percentage points on annualized productivity growth over the 10 years post-crisis due to this weak investment environment [32][35]. Technological Slowdown - The report indicates that the slowdown in manufacturing productivity is largely driven by a stepdown in innovation, particularly in electronics manufacturing, which has seen a deceleration in productivity growth due to the exhaustion of easy gains from technological advancements [39][40]. - Total factor productivity has stagnated across DMs over the last 20 years, suggesting a broader slowdown in technological progress [44][50]. Implications for the Outlook - The report concludes that while recent policy efforts, such as tariffs and investment promises, may provide some support to domestic manufacturing productivity, a significant turnaround is unlikely without a meaningful pickup in the pace of innovation, particularly from advancements in robotics and generative AI [54][57].