房地产行业2025年7月投资策略：基本面持续低迷，博弈窗口开启

Industry Overview - The real estate industry is experiencing a continuous downturn in fundamentals, with sales volume declining further in May compared to April. The year-on-year price decline for new and second-hand homes in 70 cities has narrowed, but the month-on-month decline has expanded [1][10] - In June, the cumulative transaction volume of new residential properties in 30 cities was 42.43 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 1%. Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw year-on-year increases of 2%, 5%, 15%, and 27% respectively [1][10] - The transaction volume of second-hand residential properties in 18 cities also saw a slight year-on-year decline, with a cumulative total of 410,000 units sold in June, reflecting a 17% increase year-on-year in major cities like Beijing and Shenzhen [1][16] Price Trends - As of June 2025, the month-on-month price changes for second-hand homes were -1.1% for first-tier cities, -1.2% for strong second-tier cities, -1.3% for weak second-tier cities, and -0.8% for third-tier cities. The price decline in first-tier cities has accelerated to levels comparable to August of the previous year [2][23] Market Performance - The real estate sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.0 percentage points in the current month. Since the last strategy report, the sector has risen by 1.2%, ranking 19th among 31 industries. The dynamic PE ratio for the sector is projected to be 62.6 times for 2025 [2][28] Investment Strategy - The report indicates that the real estate sector's fundamentals remain weak, with the market sentiment returning to levels seen in August of the previous year. Given the low market sentiment, macroeconomic pressures, and expectations of a US dollar interest rate cut, there is potential for policy support, creating a window for speculation in real estate stocks. Recommended stocks for July include China Resources Land, China Resources Mixc Lifestyle, China Jinmao, Beike-W, and Wo Ai Wo Jia [2][34]