NHD(SZ:002946) EBSCN·2025-06-30 09:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing advantages of raw milk and structural upgrades that enhance profitability [1][2] - New product iterations and management empowerment are anticipated to drive long-term growth, with new products contributing over 10% to overall revenue [1] - The company’s flexible milk source structure, with 30% from self-owned farms, 30% from joint ventures, and 40% from social farms, allows for profit enhancement under cost advantages [2] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Projected revenue for 2023 is 10,987 million yuan, with a growth rate of 9.80%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 12,416 million yuan, with a growth rate of 5.09% [3][9] - The company’s net profit for 2023 is estimated at 431 million yuan, growing to 931 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 14.30% [3][9] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 26.9% in 2023 to 29.3% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [11] Cost Structure and Product Mix - The company’s cost structure is expected to benefit from a reduction in raw milk prices, which have decreased to 3.04 yuan per kilogram as of June 2025 [2] - The product mix is shifting towards low-temperature fresh milk and specialty yogurt, which have higher gross margins compared to room-temperature products (40%+ for low-temperature fresh milk vs. 20%+ for room-temperature) [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.50 yuan in 2023 to 1.08 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 38 to 17 over the same period [3][12] - The report forecasts a return on equity (ROE) improvement from 16.85% in 2023 to 20.23% in 2027, indicating enhanced shareholder value [3][11]