Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage of Circle Internet Group (CRCL) with a Neutral rating and a 12-month price target of $83, indicating a potential downside of 54% from the current price of $180.43 [1][13][29] Core Insights - CRCL is positioned as a unique asset in the crypto ecosystem, being the only pure play crypto-native company that can expand into large existing fiat markets without the direct price volatility associated with crypto trading [1][27] - The main product, USDC, is a stablecoin designed to represent USD on the blockchain, with a projected 40% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in USDC supply from 2024 to 2027 [2][27] - The report anticipates a 26% revenue CAGR and a 37% adjusted earnings per share (EPS) CAGR for CRCL from 2024 to 2027, driven by market share gains and the expansion of the crypto ecosystem [2][27] Summary by Sections Business Overview - CRCL issues and manages USDC, which has a market cap of $61 billion as of June 2025, representing 25% of the total stablecoin market cap [30][31] - The company has seen significant growth in USDC, with a market cap increase from $25 billion at the end of 2023 to $61 billion by mid-2025 [30][31] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from $658.9 million in 2024 to $1.324 billion by 2027, with net income expected to rise from $214.7 million to $550.9 million in the same period [4][10] - The adjusted pre-tax margin is forecasted to increase by approximately 11.5 percentage points to 53% by 2027, benefiting from a largely fixed cost base [2][27] Market Dynamics - The report highlights the potential for USDC to penetrate new total addressable markets (TAMs), particularly in cross-border payments and fiat trading, which could provide significant upside [3][28] - The stablecoin market is expected to grow from approximately $240 billion to over $1 trillion in the next 3-5 years, with a significant portion of clients anticipating this growth [24][28] Competitive Positioning - CRCL's growth is supported by ongoing global stablecoin legislation that favors compliant stablecoins like USDC, alongside strategic partnerships that enhance market share [2][27] - The company is positioned to benefit from a strong regulatory framework, which is expected to catalyze long-term growth in the stablecoin sector [27][29]
高盛：Circle 首次覆盖，目标价83