Luckin Coffee(US:LKNCY) Changjiang Securities·2025-07-01 01:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the tea beverage industry [6]. Core Insights - The tea beverage industry has evolved into a trillion-yuan new consumption sector, driven by product cycles and changing consumer demands [20][24]. - The industry is experiencing a shift from basic functional needs to more complex demands, including product, experience, social, and brand needs [24]. - There is significant growth potential in both domestic and international markets, particularly in lower-tier cities and Southeast Asia [31][45]. Summary by Sections 01 Consumption: A Product of Economic and Demographic Cycles - The report outlines the correlation between economic cycles and consumer spending, highlighting that per capita GDP growth has shifted from 14% during the reform era to 7% in the high-quality development era [13]. - It identifies key factors influencing consumption, including income expectations, demographic structure, and economic conditions [16]. 02 Tea Beverage Industry: Space, Structure, and Barriers - The current market for ready-to-drink tea has reached a scale of over 100 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27% from 2015 to 2018 [21]. - The demand for tea beverages has evolved, with consumers now seeking products that fulfill multiple needs beyond basic functionality [24]. - The report predicts that by 2030, the number of tea beverage stores could reach between 42,800 to 94,400, depending on market conditions, with a five-year CAGR of 11% to 21% [37]. - The competitive landscape shows that lower-priced products are gaining market share, with the average price point for tea beverages narrowing [49]. 03 Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on tea beverage companies that have growth potential, a favorable competitive landscape, and operational barriers, as the industry is expected to maintain a high level of consumer interest [62].