YIWU CCC(SH:600415) Guoxin Securities·2025-07-01 01:39Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.63-1.7 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.57%-17.4%. The second quarter is projected to generate 827-897 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.5%-22% [4][5]. - The ongoing招商 (招商 refers to the process of attracting businesses to occupy commercial spaces) at the global digital trade center is expected to significantly contribute to the company's performance, with the fashion jewelry sector already completed and other sectors like children's products and skincare currently in the招商 phase [4][6]. - The establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary in Hong Kong to apply for a TCSP license is anticipated to enhance the company's cross-border payment services, transitioning from a payment tool to a comprehensive financial service platform [5][11]. Summary by Sections Global Digital Trade Center - The global digital trade center is a key project for the company, with a total investment exceeding 8.3 billion yuan and an area of over 1.25 million square meters. The market section, which is the main engine, covers 410,000 square meters and is expected to open in October 2025 [6][10]. - The招商 for the fashion jewelry sector has attracted over 4,000 businesses, with bidding prices ranging from 110,000 to 124,000 yuan per square meter, indicating strong demand [4][6]. - The expected revenue contribution from the market section is estimated to be between 16.3 billion and 20.3 billion yuan, primarily from entry fees and merchant fees [10]. Cross-Border Payment Business - The company’s cross-border payment business, yiwupay, is projected to exceed 4 billion USD in cross-border receipts in 2024, with a net profit of approximately 61.04 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 274.67% [11][12]. - The company aims to leverage financial technology to enhance trade facilitation, with innovative payment tools like stablecoins expected to provide efficient and low-cost cross-border payment solutions [12]. Financial Forecast - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is revised to 4.032 billion, 6.408 billion, and 7.832 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28.1, 17.7, and 14.5 times [5][14].