Report Highlights 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economy in the macro and financial sector is rated as "Bullish (Slightly)" [1] 2. Core View - The US faces a large - scale debt problem, with about $12 trillion in Treasury bonds to be sold in the next year, which may lead to a "fiscal heart attack." The passage of a related bill is uncertain and has raised concerns [1] - There are different views on the valuation of US stocks. Goldman Sachs believes it is too high, while others think US stocks are supported by solid balance sheets, and European trading is more speculative [1] - Neuralink has the potential to revolutionize human - machine interaction, with the ultimate goal of achieving a full - brain interface and transforming the human brain into a "biological + digital" brain [1] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has issued licenses to 11 virtual asset trading platforms, and there are ongoing institutional applications [1] - A New York mayoral candidate advocates for a more equitable city by taxing the top 1% of the wealthy to fund public services [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Information - The US needs to sell about $12 trillion in Treasury bonds in the next year, including $1 trillion for interest payments, $9 trillion for debt repayment, and an additional $2 trillion due to a $2 trillion deficit [1] - The passage of a bill with a large - scale debt is uncertain, and some senators oppose it [1] - Different views on US and European stock markets: Goldman Sachs thinks US stock valuation is too high, while others believe US stocks have solid balance sheets, and European trading depends on infrastructure plans [1] - Neuralink can enable humans to control Tesla Optimus robots with thoughts, and its ultimate goal is a full - brain interface [1] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has issued licenses to 11 virtual asset trading platforms, and institutions are applying for related services [1] - A New York mayoral candidate wants to tax the top 1% to fund public services [1] Global Economic Logic - The US President claims to have reached a trade agreement with China, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is rising [1] - The US June Markit manufacturing PMI final value is 52.0, indicating continued expansion. China's June PMI production index continues to expand, and the new order index resumes expansion [1] - The Swiss National Bank cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 0. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates 8 times, and Germany's 30% military expansion boosts European manufacturing [1] - China is comprehensively rectifying involution - style competition [1]
格林大华期货全球经济早盘提示-20250701