Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-01 02:23Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: July 1, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Copper Price and Volatility - Latest Price: 79,870 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility: 9.17%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 9.6% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - Scenario: High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline - Strategy: Sell 75% of Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contracts at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of CU2508C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - Scenario: Low raw material inventory, worried about price increase - Strategy: Buy 75% of Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contracts at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] News and Factors - Fundamental Situation: Stable [3] - Bullish Factors: Sino - US tariff policy easing and lower inventory levels [4] - Bearish Factors: Tariff policy reversals, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, the Fed keeping high interest rates, the US dollar index hovering at a low level, and increased Fed rate - cut expectations [5][6][8] Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - Shanghai Copper Main: 79,870 yuan/ton, daily change 0, daily change rate 0% - Shanghai Copper Continuous 1: 79,870 yuan/ton, daily change - 50, daily change rate - 0.06% - Shanghai Copper Continuous 3: 79,440 yuan/ton, daily change 0, daily change rate 0% - LME Copper 3M: 9,878 dollars/ton, daily change - 1, daily change rate - 0.01% - Shanghai - London Ratio: 7.91, daily change 0.08, daily change rate 1.02% [7] Spot Data - Shanghai Non - Ferrous 1 Copper: 79,990 yuan/ton, daily change - 135, daily change rate - 0.17% - Shanghai Wumaotrade: 79,935 yuan/ton, daily change - 225, daily change rate - 0.28% - Guangdong Southern Reserve: 79,890 yuan/ton, daily change - 290, daily change rate - 0.36% - Yangtze Non - Ferrous: 80,090 yuan/ton, daily change - 210, daily change rate - 0.26% [9] Copper Scrap - to - Refined Spread - Current Tax - included Scrap - to - Refined Spread: 2,131.28 yuan/ton, daily change 166.39, daily change rate 8.47% - Reasonable Tax - included Scrap - to - Refined Spread: 1,501.1 yuan/ton, daily change 0.6, daily change rate 0.04% - Tax - included Price Advantage: 630.18 yuan/ton, daily change 165.79, daily change rate 35.7% - Current Tax - Excluded Scrap - to - Refined Spread: 6,810 yuan/ton, daily change 160, daily change rate 2.41% - Reasonable Tax - Excluded Scrap - to - Refined Spread: 6,259.63 yuan/ton, daily change 4.16, daily change rate 0.07% - Tax - Excluded Price Advantage: 550.37 yuan/ton, daily change 155.84, daily change rate 39.5% [11] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Receipts - Total Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts: 25,851 tons, daily change 505, daily change rate 1.99% - Total International Copper Warehouse Receipts: 2,503 tons, daily change 1,004, daily change rate 66.98% [14] LME Copper Inventory - Total LME Copper Inventory: 90,625 tons, change - 650, change rate - 0.71% - European LME Copper Inventory: 31,550 tons, change - 2,625, change rate - 7.68% - Asian LME Copper Inventory: 59,725 tons, change 825, change rate 1.4% - North American LME Copper Inventory: 0 tons, change 0, change rate - 100% [16] COMEX Copper Inventory - Total COMEX Copper Inventory: 209,281 tons, weekly change 8,084, weekly change rate 4.02% - Total COMEX Registered Warehouse Receipts: 110,017 tons, weekly change 10,551, weekly change rate 1.34% - Total COMEX Cancelled Warehouse Receipts: 99,264 tons, weekly change - 70, weekly change rate - 0.07% [18] Copper Import Profit and Processing Fees - Copper Import Profit and Loss: - 2,108.67 yuan/ton, daily change 881.22, daily change rate - 29.47% - Copper Concentrate TC: - 43.57 dollars/ton, daily change - 0.44, daily change rate 1.02% [19]