Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-01 02:21Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The medium to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Since late April, London gold has been in a range - bound oscillation. Short - term technical patterns show weakness and pressure, but the daily line has regained the $3300 level. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of this support. The next support is at $3250, and if it breaks, it may further decline to the previous low of $3120. The resistance is in the $3330 - 3350 area. London silver should focus on the support around $35.3, with strong support in the $34.5 - 35 area, and resistances at $36.2 and $36.8. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [6]. Summary by Directory Market Review - On Monday, the precious metals market rebounded after a decline. Among surrounding assets, the US stock market rose, the US Treasury yield declined, the US dollar index dropped, and Bitcoin fluctuated. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3315 per ounce, up 0.83%; COMEX silver 2509 contract closed at $36.33 per ounce, down 0.11%. SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 767.58 yuan per gram, down 0.62%; SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8762 yuan per kilogram, down 0.54% [2]. - In terms of trade tariffs, Trump said there was no need to extend the July 9 deadline and would set tariffs for each country, threatening to impose a 25% tariff on Japanese cars. The EU was willing to accept the US "benchmark tariff" but sought exemptions for key industries. Canada made concessions and cancelled the digital service tax, and the US and Canada would resume trade negotiations to reach an agreement by July 21. South Korea's top priority was to obtain a tariff extension [2]. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 79.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 20.2%. In September, the probability of unchanged rates is 5.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 75.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 18.8%. In October, the probability of unchanged rates is 1.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 24.6%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 60.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 13.7% [3]. - In terms of long - term funds, SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 2.29 tons to 952.53 tons, and iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 39.58 tons to 14826.61 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 4.1 tons to 1299.8 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 21 tons to 1357.8 tons as of the week ending June 20 [3]. This Week's Focus - This week, focus on the US non - farm payrolls report on Thursday night. The US Senate is preparing to vote on the Trump administration's "Great Beauty" bill, aiming to pass it before July 4. On Tuesday at 21:30, central bank governors from major economies will have a panel discussion. On Friday, due to the US Independence Day holiday, COMEX precious metals trading will end at 01:00 Beijing time on the 5th [4]. Precious Metals Spot and Futures Price Table - SHFE gold main - continuous contract is at 767.58 yuan per gram, up 1.18 yuan or 0.15%; SGX gold TD is at 764.15 yuan per gram, up 1.07 yuan or 0.14%; CME gold main contract is at $3315 per ounce, up $28.9 or 0.88%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract is at 8762 yuan per kilogram, down 30 yuan or 0.34%; SGX silver TD is at 8728 yuan per kilogram, down 20 yuan or 0.23%; CME silver main contract is at $36.33 per ounce, up $0.165 or 0.46%. SHFE - TD gold is at 3.43 yuan per gram, up 0.11 yuan or 3.31%; SHFE - TD silver is at 34 yuan per kilogram, down 10 yuan or 91.3%. The CME gold - silver ratio is 91.2469, up 0.3828 or 0.42% [7]. Inventory and Position Table - SHFE gold inventory is 18237 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory is 1152.3287 tons, down 0.0042 tons. SHFE gold position is 155821 lots, up 25999 lots or 20.03%; SPDR gold position is 952.53 tons, down 2.29 tons or - 0.24%. SHFE silver inventory is 1299.756 tons, up 4.093 tons or 0.32%; CME silver inventory is 15542.2557 tons, up 18.7987 tons or 0.12%; SGX silver inventory is 1357.845 tons, down 21.03 tons or - 1.53%. SHFE silver position is 277702 lots, down 37746 lots or - 11.97%; SLV silver position is 14826.612625 tons, down 39.5722 tons or - 0.27% [16]. Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The US dollar index is at 96.8103, down 0.4513 or - 0.46%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is at 7.16, down 0.0043 or - 0.06%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 44094.77 points, up 275.5 points or 0.63%. WTI crude oil spot is at $65.11 per barrel, down $0.41 or - 0.63%. LmeS copper 03 is at $9878 per ton, down $1 or - 0.01%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is at 4.24%, down 0.05 or - 1.17%. The 10 - year US real interest rate is at 1.95, down 0.05 or - 2.5%. The 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread is at 0.52, down 0.04 or - 7.14% [21][23].