南华期货沥青风险管理日报-20250701

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Asphalt Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 1, 2025 - Analyst: Ling Chuanhui (Investment Consultation License No.: Z0019531) - Investment Consultation Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of asphalt remain resilient. This week, the production was 547,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, and the demand was 581,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 19%. The sample inventory decreased by 34,000 tons. The factory inventory decreased significantly, while the social inventory changed little. Affected by the decline in the risk premium of crude oil, the asphalt basis strengthened, and the crack spread also strengthened, still remaining in a high range. Looking forward, the overall supply is in the seasonal resumption of production, but limited by the poor profit of refined oil products and the limited profitability of local refineries, there is little room for significant improvement. From August, the construction conditions in the north and south are good, and the overall construction enters the peak season. The debt resolution progress of local governments in 2025 has accelerated, and the funds have been alleviated. As it is the final stage of the "14th Five-Year Plan", the number of projects is guaranteed to a certain extent, and the peak season is still expected [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Asphalt Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the month is 3,400 - 3,750 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.89%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 52.15% [2] Risk Management Strategy Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about the decline in asphalt prices, for enterprises with long spot positions, to prevent inventory losses, they can short the bu2509 asphalt futures according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The recommended short - selling ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is 3,650 - 3,750 yuan/ton [2] Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and enterprises hope to purchase according to orders, for those with short spot positions, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising asphalt prices, they can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying ratio is 50%, and the recommended entry range is 3,300 - 3,400 yuan/ton [2] Core Contradictions - Supply and demand are resilient. This week, production increased by 20.5% year - on - year, demand increased by 19% year - on - year, and sample inventory decreased by 34,000 tons. Factory inventory decreased significantly, and social inventory changed little. The basis and crack spread strengthened but remained in a high range. Supply is in seasonal resumption, but limited by refined oil profit and local refinery profitability. Demand will enter the peak season in August, with improved funds and guaranteed project numbers [3] 利多解读 - Not provided in the report 利空解读 - Short - term demand is dragged down by the plum rain season in the south; the easing of the Middle East situation leads to the regression of the war premium of crude oil [5] Price and Basis Crack Spread - The daily and weekly changes in spot prices in different regions (Shandong, Yangtze River Delta, North China, South China) are different. The basis and crack spread of different regions also show different daily and weekly changes [6] Seasonal Charts - Include asphalt 09 contract basis seasonality in different regions (Yangtze River Delta, Northeast, Shandong, North China), asphalt futures month - to - month spreads (06 - 09, 09 - 12) seasonality, and the seasonality of domestic asphalt factory and social inventory rates [9][14][15] Other Data - Include the total number of combined orders and the total number of warehouse receipts of asphalt [19]