Bailong Chuangyuan(SH:605016) Guoxin Securities·2025-07-02 11:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][14]. Core Viewpoints - The approval of D-Allulose in China is expected to drive market demand growth, as it aligns with international standards in the functional sweetener sector [3][5]. - D-Allulose offers similar taste to sucrose, low calories, and various functional benefits, filling a gap in China's functional sweetener market [3][10]. - The company currently has a production capacity of 15,000 tons of D-Allulose crystals and plans to build an additional capacity of nearly 20,000 tons in Thailand to meet growing domestic and international demand [4][14]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leader in the fields of prebiotics, dietary fibers, and healthy sweeteners (D-Allulose) in China, targeting mid-to-high-end markets with clients including major beverage companies [4][14]. - Current product sales exceed supply, with stable prices, and upcoming expansions are expected to enhance revenue and profit from 2025 to 2027 [4][14]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 346 million, 431 million, and 503 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 40.8%, 24.7%, and 16.6% [4][14]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 28.0, 22.5, and 19.3 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][14]. Market Potential - The global D-Allulose market has grown from 33 million USD in 2019 to 173 million USD in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 33.26%, and is expected to reach 545 million USD by 2030 [9][10]. - D-Allulose is seen as a promising sugar substitute due to its advantages in taste, safety, and functionality, with significant potential to replace traditional sugar in the market [10][14].