从中美对比和商业化速度，看Robotaxi产业链发展

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - Tesla's Robotaxi service officially launched in Austin, Texas, marking a significant step in the commercialization of autonomous driving, with a fleet of approximately 10 Model Y SUVs operating in designated areas [2][20] - In China, the Robotaxi commercialization process is advancing rapidly due to policy synergy and technological advantages, with the total number of taxis and licensed ride-hailing vehicles expected to reach 4-5 million by 2024, while the current market penetration of Robotaxis remains below 1% [2][8] Summary by Sections Robotaxi Commercialization Progress - Tesla's Robotaxi service began trial operations, charging a fixed fee of $4.20 per ride, with a safety driver present in each vehicle [6][20] - The U.S. companies, while slightly ahead in the commercialization timeline, face competition from Chinese firms that have achieved limited area operations with safety drivers [8][29] Technology Development Paths - The industry is characterized by two main technological approaches: Waymo's leapfrog strategy focusing on L4 autonomous driving with multi-sensor fusion, and Tesla's incremental approach using L2/L3 systems based on mass-produced vehicles [7][28] - Chinese Robotaxi companies are primarily adopting the leapfrog technology route, with significant cost advantages due to declining core component prices and local supply chain benefits [8][29] Market Potential and Cost Structure - The Robotaxi market in China is projected to grow significantly, with the total number of taxis and licensed ride-hailing vehicles expected to reach 4-5 million by 2024, while the current number of operational Robotaxis is under 3,000 [8][40] - The cost of a Robotaxi in China is approximately one-third of that of U.S. counterparts, with significant reductions in hardware costs expected in the coming years [8][39] Regulatory Environment - The regulatory landscape in China is gradually becoming more favorable for Robotaxi operations, with recent policies encouraging pilot programs and commercial operations in designated areas [32][35] - The U.S. has adopted a more open regulatory approach, allowing for rapid testing and deployment of Robotaxi services in various cities [35] Competitive Landscape - Leading Chinese Robotaxi companies include Baidu's Apollo, Pony.ai, and WeRide, which have established operations in multiple cities and are expanding their fleets [32][34] - The competition is intensifying as these companies leverage their technological advancements and cost efficiencies to capture market share both domestically and internationally [37][38]