Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-03 03:06Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 3, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Copper Price and Volatility - Latest Price: 80,540 yuan/ton - Price Range Forecast (Monthly): 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton - Current Volatility: 9.38% - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 10.7% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - Situation: High finished product inventory, worried about price decline - Spot Exposure: Long - Strategy: Short Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contract (75% at around 82,000 yuan/ton), Sell Call Options (25% when volatility is relatively stable) - Hedging Tools: Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contract, CU2508C82000 - Buying/Selling Direction: Sell Raw Material Management - Situation: Low raw material inventory, worried about price increase - Spot Exposure: Short - Strategy: Long Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contract (75% at around 75,000 yuan/ton) - Hedging Tools: Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contract - Buying/Selling Direction: Buy [2] Important News - The fundamentals remain stable [3] Factors Affecting Copper Prices Bullish Factors - Easing of Sino-US tariff policies - Decrease in LME inventory levels [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy reversals - Decrease in global demand due to tariff policies - The Fed maintains high interest rates - Low dollar index - Increased expectation of Fed rate cuts [5][6][8] Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - Shanghai Copper Main: 80,540 yuan/ton, 0 change, 0% change rate - Shanghai Copper Continuous 1: 80,540 yuan/ton, -100 change, -0.12% change rate - Shanghai Copper Continuous 3: 80,050 yuan/ton, 0 change, 0% change rate - LME Copper 3M: 10,010 dollars/ton, 67 change, 0.67% change rate - Shanghai-London Ratio: 7.96, 0.01 change, 0.13% change rate [7] Spot Data - Shanghai Nonferrous 1 Copper: 80,990 yuan/ton, 785 change, 0.98% change rate - Shanghai Wumaohui: 80,890 yuan/ton, 730 change, 0.91% change rate - Guangdong Nanchu: 80,880 yuan/ton, 770 change, 0.96% change rate - Yangtze Nonferrous: 81,050 yuan/ton, 690 change, 0.86% change rate - Shanghai Nonferrous Premium/Discount: 120 yuan/ton, -80 change, -40% change rate - Shanghai Wumaohui Premium/Discount: 90 yuan/ton, -50 change, -35.71% change rate - Guangdong Nanchu Premium/Discount: 130 yuan/ton, -30 change, -18.75% change rate - Yangtze Nonferrous Premium/Discount: 155 yuan/ton, -70 change, -31.11% change rate [9] Copper Scrap Price Difference - Current Scrap Price Difference (Tax-included): 2,402.98 yuan/ton, 241.7 change, 11.18% change rate - Reasonable Scrap Price Difference (Tax-included): 1,510.2 yuan/ton, 8.8 change, 0.59% change rate - Price Advantage (Tax-included): 892.78 yuan/ton, 232.9 change, 35.29% change rate - Current Scrap Price Difference (Tax-excluded): 7,120 yuan/ton, 280 change, 4.09% change rate - Reasonable Scrap Price Difference (Tax-excluded): 6,322.79 yuan/ton, 61.07 change, 0.98% change rate - Price Advantage (Tax-excluded): 797.21 yuan/ton, 218.93 change, 37.86% change rate [11] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Receipts - Total Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts: 25,097 tons, 324 change, 1.31% change rate - Total International Copper Warehouse Receipts: 2,403 tons, -100 change, -4% change rate - Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts in Shanghai: 14,905 tons, 101 change, 0.68% change rate - Total Bonded Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts: 0 tons, 0 change, -100% change rate - Total Tax-paid Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts: 25,097 tons, 324 change, 1.31% change rate [14] LME Copper Inventory - Total LME Copper Inventory: 90,625 tons, -625 change, -0.68% change rate - LME Copper Inventory in Europe: 31,350 tons, -125 change, -0.4% change rate - LME Copper Inventory in Asia: 59,900 tons, 750 change, 1.27% change rate - LME Copper Inventory in North America: 0 tons, 0 change, -100% change rate - Total LME Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts: 57,700 tons, -1,575 change, -2.66% change rate - Total LME Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts: 32,925 tons, 950 change, 2.97% change rate [16] COMEX Copper Inventory - Total COMEX Copper Inventory: 212,139 tons, 7,823 change, 3.83% change rate - Total COMEX Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts: 109,313 tons, 10,956 change, 0.06% change rate - Total COMEX Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts: 102,826 tons, 867 change, 0.85% change rate [18] Copper Import Profit and Processing - Copper Import Profit and Loss: -1,128.13 yuan/ton, 356.71 change, -24.02% change rate - Copper Concentrate TC: -43.57 dollars/ton, 0 change, 0% change rate [19]