Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-03 03:02Report Overview - The report is the Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report dated July 3, 2025, prepared by the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The tin market's fundamentals remain stable. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the tin price. Positive factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector's expansion cycle, and lower - than - expected resumption of production in Myanmar. Negative factors are the volatility of tariff policies, the resumption of production in Myanmar, and the potential slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion [3][4][5][6] Detailed Summaries Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 268,520 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.24%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 14.9% [2] Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concern about price drops, sell 100% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 290,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2508C275000 call options when the volatility is appropriate [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and concern about price increases, buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2508P245000 put options when the volatility is appropriate [2] Market Data Futures Data (Daily) - Shanghai Tin main, Shanghai Tin continuous one, and Shanghai Tin continuous three all closed at 268,520 yuan/ton, 268,520 yuan/ton, and 268,290 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. LME Tin 3M was at 33,625 US dollars/ton, down 125 US dollars (- 0.37%). The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.92, down 0.09 (- 1.12%) [6] Spot Data (Weekly) - Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots were at 268,500 yuan/ton, up 6,400 yuan (2.44%); 1 tin premium was at 400 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan (- 42.86%); 40% tin concentrate was at 256,500 yuan/ton, up 6,400 yuan (2.56%); 60% tin concentrate was at 260,500 yuan/ton, up 6,400 yuan (2.52%); 60A solder bar was at 174,250 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan (2.05%); 63A solder bar was at 181,750 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan (2.25%); lead - free solder was at 274,750 yuan/ton, up 6,500 yuan (2.42%) [10][13] Import and Processing Data (Daily) - Tin import profit and loss was - 16,263.89 yuan/ton, up 948.87 yuan (- 5.51%); 40% tin ore processing fee was 12,200 yuan/ton, with no change; 60% tin ore processing fee was 10,550 yuan/ton, with no change [15] Inventory Data (Daily) - Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipts totaled 6,888 tons, up 122 tons (1.8%); Guangdong warehouse receipts were 4,270 tons, up 56 tons (1.33%); Shanghai warehouse receipts were 1,693 tons, up 66 tons (4.06%); LME tin inventory totaled 2,175 tons, down 45 tons (- 2.03%) [20]