南华贵金属日报：关注周四晚非农-20250703

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Since late April, London gold has been in a range - bound oscillation, but the short - term trend has strengthened. The support level for London gold is 3330, with a key support at 3300, and resistance levels at 3365 and then 3400. The support for London silver has moved up to 36.2, and the resistance is in the range of 36.6 - 36.8. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, the precious metals market was generally strong. Peripheral assets such as US stocks, US bonds, the US dollar index, Bitcoin, crude oil, and the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index all performed well. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3368.7 per ounce, up 0.56%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $36.79 per ounce, up 1.08%. SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 776.04 yuan per gram, up 0.7%; SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8747 yuan per kilogram, up 0.09%. Trump's "Great Beautiful" bill was blocked in the House of Representatives, and the infighting within the Republican Party escalated. The US "small non - farm" ADP employment data released on Wednesday evening was unexpectedly poor, with a decrease of 33,000, turning negative for the first time in more than three years, slightly increasing the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut this year [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 25.3%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 7.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 69.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 22.8%. In October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 2.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 29.8%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 52.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point rate cut is 14.6%. The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings decreased by 0.57 tons to 947.66 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF's holdings increased by 42.4 tons to 14896.01 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 0.1 tons to 1338.8 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 34.6 tons to 1323.2 tons in the week ending June 27 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week, the main data to focus on is the US non - farm payrolls report on Thursday night. In terms of events, attention should be paid to the progress of the US House of Representatives' vote on Trump's "Great Beautiful" bill. Also, due to the US Independence Day holiday on Friday, COMEX precious metals trading will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 5th [4]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Tables - Precious Metal Futures and Spot Prices: SHFE gold main - continuous contract was at 776.04 yuan per gram, down 0.01%; SGX gold TD was at 770.33 yuan per gram, down 0.22%; CME gold main contract was at $3368.7 per ounce, up 0.56%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract was at 8747 yuan per kilogram, down 0.72%; SGX silver TD was at 8737 yuan per kilogram, down 0.77%; CME silver main contract was at $36.79 per ounce, up 1.5%. SHFE - TD gold was at 5.71 yuan per gram, up 40.64%; SHFE - TD silver was at 10 yuan per kilogram, down 85.29%; CME gold - silver ratio was 91.5656, down 0.93% [7]. - Inventory and Holdings: SHFE gold inventory was 18,456 kilograms, up 0.02%; CME gold inventory was 1152.3287 tons, unchanged; SHFE gold holdings were 168,596 lots, up 0.68%; SPDR gold holdings were 947.66 tons, down 0.06%. SHFE silver inventory was 1338.659 tons, down 0.01%; CME silver inventory was 15,557.4558 tons, down 0.2%; SGX silver inventory was 1323.225 tons, down 2.55%; SHFE silver holdings were 249,023 lots, down 5.93%; SLV silver holdings were 14,869.009712 tons, up 0.29% [17][18]. 3.5 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The US dollar index was 96.7751, up 0.12%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.1634, down 0.01%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 44,484.42 points, down 0.02%. WTI crude oil spot was at $67.45 per barrel, up 3.06%. LmeS copper 03 was at $10,010 per ton, up 0.67%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.3%, up 0.94%; the 10 - year US real interest rate was 2%, up 1.52%; the 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread was 0.52%, up 8.33% [23].