STL(SZ:002648) Donghai Securities·2025-07-03 08:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the resumption of U.S. ethane exports to China, which is expected to benefit the company significantly due to its core assets in U.S. ethane exports [6]. - The company has a competitive edge with its low ethylene production costs and integrated supply chain advantages, positioning it well for future growth [6]. - The report projects substantial revenue and profit growth for the company from 2025 to 2027, with expected revenues of 588.39 billion, 681.97 billion, and 788.11 billion respectively, and net profits of 72.21 billion, 92.46 billion, and 117.78 billion respectively [7][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a total share capital of 336,865 million shares and a closing price of 17.31 as of July 2, 2025 [1]. - The asset-liability ratio stands at 53.62%, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.83 and a weighted return on equity of 5.05% [1]. Market Dynamics - The U.S. has lifted the export ban on ethane to China, which is crucial for the company's operations as it owns a significant export terminal in the U.S. [6]. - The report notes that the construction of new ethane terminals in the U.S. is unlikely due to high investment costs and regulatory challenges [6]. Competitive Position - The company is positioned in the lowest cost range for ethylene production in China, benefiting from technological advancements and lower raw material costs [6]. - The company plans to expand its fleet of VLEC ships to enhance its logistics capabilities, with an investment of 257 billion for six new vessels [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue growth rates are projected at 28.90% for 2025, followed by 15.90% and 15.56% for 2026 and 2027 respectively [8]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.14, 2.74, and 3.50 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][8].