Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-03 12:55Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Log Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 3, 2025 - Title: Narrow Fluctuation, Lack of Driving Force - Analyst: Song Jipeng [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Core View - The 09 contract rose 0.25% today, added 626 lots, and closed at 792.5. The market is in narrow - range consolidation with a lack of short - term market drivers. Although there is a certain peak - season expectation on the consumption side, the expected increase is limited. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The bottom price of the 09 contract has strong short - term support, and one can sell the lg2509P750 contract when the price of lg2509 drops [3][4] Summary by Directory Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 740 - 820, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 16.28%, and the current volatility's historical percentile over 3 years is 67.4% [2] Log Hedging Strategy - Inventory Management: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and one is worried about price drops, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 800 - 820 [2] - Procurement Management: When the regular procurement inventory is low and one hopes to purchase according to order situations, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 750 - 800 [2] Core Contradiction - The 09 contract rose 0.25% and added 626 lots, closing at 792.5. The market is in narrow - range consolidation. On the spot side, driven by the demand for laminated wood, the quotes of large A - grade logs in Shandong and Jiangsu increased, while the prices of medium and small A - grade logs remained unchanged. In the last week of June (June 23 - 29), the total number of departing log ships from New Zealand was 13, the same as the previous period. The number of ships directly bound for China was 10, with a shipping volume of 370,000 JASm³, the same as the previous period but with a volume decrease of 10,000 JASm³ [3] New Zealand Log Market - The AWG quote in New Zealand in June was the same as in May, with the A - grade log quote at 116 New Zealand dollars per JASm³. The estimated arrival price of Chinese ships in July is 113 - 115 US dollars per JASm³, showing a slight increase. The log supply in New Zealand decreased by about 10% due to seasonal factors, corresponding to a seasonal decline in domestic inventory. The New Zealand log market faces difficulties, including the impact of winter climate leading to a seasonal production off - season, continuous oversupply of structural saw - timber, and significant suppression of market demand by high interest rates and credit tightening, resulting in a continuous decline in the start - up rate of residential and commercial construction projects. The average freight for loading a log ship from two ports in the North Island to China is 30 US dollars per JASm³. The weakening US dollar and rising freight rates support the CFR quote. The previous low of the 09 contract has relatively strong support recently [4] 利多解读 - Traders are willing to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses; import costs continue to rise; the overall sentiment of commodities has warmed up [8] 利空解读 - The outflow of delivery products from the 07 contract may suppress the spot price; the shipping volume of foreign suppliers continues to increase [8] Spot and Basis - The report provides detailed spot prices, price changes, and basis data for different specifications of logs at different ports on July 3, 2025, and gives the calculation formula for the converted basis [6][8][9] Log Data Overview - Supply: The radiation pine import volume in May 2025 was 1.69 million m³, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [10] - Inventory: As of June 27, 2025, the port inventory in China was 3.36 million m³, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 7.0%. The port inventory in Shandong was 2,011,000 m³, a week - on - week increase of 21,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 8.8%. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,114,500 m³, a week - on - week increase of 4,655 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 47.1% [10] - Demand: As of June 27, 2025, the average daily log outbound volume at ports was 65,700 m³, a week - on - week increase of 2,100 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 17.4%. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 35,500 m³, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 35.0%. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 22,200 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 400 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 0.5% [10] - Profit: As of July 4, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 44 yuan/m³, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/m³; the spruce import profit was - 64 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/m³ [10] - Main Spot Prices: The prices of some main log specifications at ports on July 3, 2025, showed no change compared to the previous period, with varying year - on - year decreases [10]