KLM(SH:600686) Tianfeng Securities·2025-07-04 01:49Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for King Long Automobile [7] Core Views - The integration of the three subsidiaries is expected to enhance procurement efficiency and improve the gross margin level, which has been relatively low compared to peers [2][48] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for buses in emerging markets and the increasing penetration of new energy buses globally [3][55] - The new management is anticipated to accelerate operational efficiency improvements, contributing to better financial performance [2][54] Summary by Sections Company Overview - King Long Automobile, established in 1988, has developed three core brands: King Long Buses, Jinlv Buses, and Haige Buses, and has faced challenges with low gross margins affecting performance [1][19] Financial Performance - The company has seen revenue growth since 2021, with 2024 revenue projected at 22.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.4%. However, the gross margin remains low at 10.2% compared to competitors [1][30] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 1.6 billion yuan, with a significant portion of this profit reliant on government subsidies [37] Strategic Developments - The integration of the three subsidiaries is expected to enhance gross margins significantly, with potential improvements if raw material costs decrease [2][50] - The appointment of a new chairman is expected to drive management reforms and operational efficiency [54] Market Outlook - King Long's products are exported to over 170 countries, with a strong growth trajectory in overseas sales, particularly in new energy buses [3][55] - The company is also focusing on autonomous driving technology, which could serve as a second growth engine [3][66] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 shows substantial growth, with expected figures of 3.78 billion, 6.86 billion, and 11.95 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 140%, 81%, and 74% [4][68] - The report suggests a target price of 15.83 yuan based on a projected valuation multiple of 9.5 times for 2027 [71]