第一创业晨会纪要-20250704

Macro Economic Group - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, exceeding the expected increase of 110,000, with the previous month's figure revised from 139,000 to 144,000 [3] - The unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2% [3] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-on-year in June, slightly below the expected 3.9% [3] - The data indicates a lower likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in July and September, with the probability of a July cut dropping from 23% to nearly zero and September from 98% to 80% [4] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Tesla's vehicle deliveries in Q2 were 384,100, a year-on-year decline of approximately 13.5%, marking two consecutive quarters of decline [11] - In June, Tesla's domestic sales were 61,000, showing a month-on-month increase of 59% and a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [11] - Tesla's sales decline is attributed to customer dissatisfaction with Elon Musk's political stance, increased competition from domestic automakers, and slow product iteration [11][12] - Domestic automakers like Geely have raised their annual sales targets, indicating a competitive market environment [11] Consumer Group - Focus Technology is expected to achieve revenue of 1.66 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.31%, with a net profit of 451 million yuan, up 19.09% [14] - The cross-border B2B e-commerce market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 21.8% from 2018 to 2022, reaching a scale of 6.1 trillion yuan by 2024 [14] - The proportion of A-share listed companies generating overseas business revenue is expected to increase from 54.48% in 2015 to 67.68% in 2024, indicating growth potential in the cross-border B2B platform sector [14]